Stochastic analysis of structural reliability of complex engineering systems

Abstract

Purpose: The assessment of risks and prediction of reliability of complex engineering systems, in particular onshore gas pipelines subjected to external corrosion. Two methods are proposed using the structural reliability analysis.Methodology: Two strategies are considered for inspection and maintenance service of hazardous production facilities.Research findings: The model of structural reliability is proposed to estimate the metal rupture from external corrosion of the pipe section. Models are presented for its mechanical failure with respect to stochastic processes of loads and resistance.Value: The inhomogeneous Poisson point process is used to simulate the formation of new defects, and the Poisson distribution is used to simulate their growth. The first method focuses on the analysis of external corrosion of gas pipelines with metal loss and predicts rupture at a reference pipe segment, constructed with respect to average pipe rupture characteristics from the PHMSA database. The second model predicts reliability for untreated sections subject to external corrosion with metal loss.