Stochastic process of extreme rainless periods in Serbia

Srdjević, Bojan; Srdjević, Zorica; Benka, Pavel

doi:10.1002/joc.6757

Cited by 5 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…Research presented in Srdjevic et al . (2020), performed for complete Serbian territory, is extended in this study for the whole Pannonian Basin and represented by the investigation of a natural phenomenon described by rainless events. From an agriculture perspective, these events are agricultural droughts that may have very long durations as historical data undoubtedly show.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, stochastic events are periods without or with very few millimetres of rainfall during the growing season in the Pannonian Basin. For simplicity, we name the rainless period as agricultural droughts following the justification provided in detail in Srdjevic et al (2020). This means that in our study the rainless period in this area is by assumption period of at least 20 consecutive days without rainfall or with rainfall less than 3 mm per day (Figure 3).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The study area is the entire territory of the Pannonian Basin in central and southeastern Europe (Figure 1), with a total size of 207,677 km 2 . Respecting the prime interests of the agricultural sector, the analysis of the three important components of meteorological extremes in the basin is performed following the same methodology presented for the territory of Serbia (Srdjevic et al, 2020). Rainless T A B L E 1 Multiyear averages and trends of rainfall sums during the growing season (April-September;1981-2010 Ongoing climate change contrasts the problem of reduced and/or degraded yields in the basin, and understanding the randomness and magnitude of drought events becomes a very important issue.…”

Section: Study Area and Rainfall Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Description of the ZT method (theoretical and applicative details) is avoided here. The method is used within the completely replicated methodology presented in (Srdjevic et al, 2020). To preserve consistency, the results of the performed study are presented here in a similar way as earlier; Tables 1-3 are extended versions of corresponding tables in Srdjevic et al (2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper presents the main results of the application of the Zelenhasic-Todorovic (ZT) method (Todorovi c, 1970;Todorovi c and Zelenhasi c, 1970;Zelenhasi c, 1970a;1970b;2002;Todorovi c and Woolhiser, 1972;Fabian and Zelenhasic, 2016;Srđevi c et al, 2018) in analysing extremely long meteorological droughts which may have significant negative consequences to the agricultural and related sectors in Pannonian Basin. A contextual description of the ZT method is given in detail by Srdjevic et al (2020).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Extreme rainless periods in Pannonian Basin

Srdjević

Benka

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper analyses extreme meteorological droughts in the territory of the Pannonian Basin in central and southeastern Europe. Droughts are treated from an agricultural perspective as periods of consecutive days with very little or no rainfall at all. By using data from the historical period 1981-2010, time intervals longer than 20 days with less than 3 mm per day during the growing season April-September are examined to determine theoretical and empirical distributions of their number and durations. Related discrete stochastic process of extremes is analysed by the Zelenhasic-Todorovic (ZT) method, successfully applied in hydrology and meteorology (e.g., peak flows, low flows, meteorological droughts, etc.). The method is applied to 52 locations across Pannonia Basin. At each location, the Poisson distribution is determined for the number of droughts, exponential distribution for the duration of droughts, and double exponential distribution for the duration of the (annually) longest droughts. To validate the quality of modelling and the results obtained, standard statistical goodness of fit tests are used. Historical data from the period 1981-2010 indicate that the central and northern part of Hungary and the entire territory of Vojvodina Province in the north of Serbia experienced the longest droughts, on average 55-60 days. In statistical terms, across Pannonia Basin once in 100 years drought may occur with an average duration of 56 days. Theoretically longest 100-year droughts could be expected in the northern part of Hungary (up to 70 days), the eastern part of Romania (up to 68 days), and Serbia (up to 69 days). The 2-year droughts are on the average duration of 3 weeks. Generated maps of the longest droughts in the basin may help to reduce agricultural risks due to global warming and other negative impacts of climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Area and Rainfall Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Extreme rainless periods in Pannonian Basin

Srdjević

Benka

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia

Bezdan,

Blagojević

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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One of the frequently used drought metrics in scientific research is the consecutive dry days (CDDs) because it effectively indicates short‐term droughts important to ecosystems and agriculture. CDDs are expected to increase in many parts of the world in the future. In Serbia, both the frequency and severity of droughts have increased in recent decades, with most droughts being caused by a lack of precipitation during the warmer months of the year and an increase in evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. In this study, the frequency and duration of extreme CDDs in the growing season in Serbia were analysed for the past (1950–2019) and the future (2020–2100) period. The Threshold Level Method over precipitation data series was used to analyse CDD events, where extreme CDDs are defined as at least 15 consecutive days without precipitation. In contrast to the original definition of the CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm, here we defined the threshold that is more suitable for agriculture because field crops can experience water stress after 15 days of no rainfall or irrigation. An approach for modelling the stochastic process of extreme CDDs based on the Zelenhasić–Todorović (ZT) method was applied in this research. The ZT method was modified by selecting a different distribution function for modelling the durations of the longest CDD events, enabling a more reliable calculation of probabilities of occurrences. According to the results, future droughts in Serbia are likely to be more frequent and severe than those in the past. The duration of the longest CDDs in a growing season will be extended in the future, lasting up to 62 days with a 10‐year return period and up to 94 days with a 100‐year return period. Results indicate a worsening of drought conditions, especially in the eastern and northern parts of Serbia. The results can help decision‐makers adapt agricultural strategies to climate change by providing information on the expected durations of extreme rainless periods in future growing seasons. Although the analysis was performed in Serbia, it can be applied to any other region.

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