Störereignisse und forstliche Planung | Natural catastrophes and forest planning

Abstract

The article presents the theoretical elements of the results of the project Lothar, an undertaking of the Chair of Forest Inventory and Planning of the ETH Zurich. In a first step, interviews were carried out with ten foresters, on the basis of which certain weak points were identified in the management to overcome the effects of hurricane Lothar and handling requirements ascertained for any such future catastrophe. One basic handicap proved to be that potential disturbances in the management process were not adequately taken into account,nor systematically. This can be partially explained by the use of inappropriate planning instruments. As a consequence we developed a theoretical management process model that can be applied as the basis of a systematic handling of the results of catastrophes. The basic idea is that at an early stage, using this model, the forester can recognise certain trends or developments in his surroundings that could have negative consequences for the production process later on. He can thus steer the production process in a way that is fully adapted to the situation,i.e. which takes into account the ongoing information exchange within the production process, using mid-term and long-term management plans. The central element of the model is a system of verifiable risk level values. In order to realise the concept of steering, management planning must differentiate between levels of strategic and operational planning.