Storm Daniel revealed the fragility of the Mediterranean region

Qiu, Junliang; Zhao, Wei; Brocca, Luca; Tarolli, Paolo

doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2023.100036

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Improving the prediction of extreme events, especially in less developed regions, is crucial and an international priority, as highlighted by the UN's Early Warnings for All program. Collaboration between space agencies and international institutions, utilizing satellite products for real-time monitoring of key variables, such as precipitation and soil moisture, is essential for developing effective early warning systems in poorly gauged areas, emphasizing a multi-hazard approach, end-to-end design, and a people-centered focus (Qiu et al 2023)…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Watch and Upgrade or Deconstruct and Relocate: Derna Catastrophe Lessons Amid the Climate-change Era of Unpredictable Flash Floods

Ashoor,

Eladawy

2024

Preprint

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Water structures' resilience to accelerated global warming impacts is attracting increased attention. Adaptation to unprecedented flash floods in semi-arid regions (e.g., Middle East and North Africa (MENA)) is becoming more challenging under the huge uncertainty of their frequency and intensity, lack of accurate hydrological studies, and water-resilient cities' absence in these wadi systems. Ten to twenty percent of Derna's population (∼90,000 people) were reported dead and missing along with more than 35,000 residents having been displaced (also, 737 completely collapsed, and 2859 partially collapsed houses) following two destruction waves after two-dams failures during unprecedented storm Daniel on the 11th of September 2023. In this study, we deeply investigated the causes and consequences of this significant main dam (i.e., Bu Mansour) breach. We started by discussing the history of dams in the region and the Derna flash flood protection system design background. Then, we rebuilt the most probable scenarios and simulated the dam break analysis validated by ground truthing methods. No matter how well-maintained the main dam was, the unprecedented Daniel storm flood highly exceeded its design capacity. Aside from the widely reported poor maintenance, our investigation of the overflow shafts of the two dams raised a potentially fatal design issue with the main dam. We concluded the most probable dynamics of the two dams' failure through two waves of destruction confirmed by diverse field observations. Ironically, the study concluded that a similar flood induced by the storm could leave much less damage in the case of the absence of any dams (i.e., far less maximum depth and velocity occurrence and fewer flooded areas). Hence, there is an urgent need to reassess similar dams’ design criteria, upgrade, or simply deconstruct similar existing aging dams -including those with small annual storage-to-design capacity ratios- along with relocating residents and infrastructure away from the low-lying areas, all aimed at safeguarding human lives in similar ungauged wadi systems.

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Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Watch and Upgrade or Deconstruct and Relocate: Derna Catastrophe Lessons Amid the Climate-change Era of Unpredictable Flash Floods

Ashoor,

Eladawy

2024

Preprint

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“…The city experienced an average precipitation of 331 mm, which accounted for 60% of the annual average precipitation within a span of 83 h. Moreover, the average precipitation in the Mentougou District was 538.1 mm, and the average precipitation in the Fangshan District was 598.7 mm. On 10 September 2023, Hurricane Daniel struck the eastern part of Libya [7], with total rainfall reaching 400 mm in 24 h. As of September 12th, the death toll had exceeded 13,000, with at least 10,000 people missing and over 40,000 people displaced. Flood disasters caused by extreme rainfall have already attracted widespread attention from countries around the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall Pattern Construction Method Based on DTW-HCA and Urban Flood Simulation: A Case Study of Nanchang City, China

Wu,

Tang,

Zhou

et al. 2023

Water

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Due to the different design standards of urban drainage and water conservancy facilities, numerous coordination and linkage issues arise when confronting extreme rainfall. In this paper, three clustering methods were used to cluster rainfall events, and the results demonstrate that the dynamic time warping-hierarchical clustering algorithm (DTW-HCA) effectively captures the temporal similarity of time series. Then, the Pilgrim and Cordery rainfall distribution method was utilized to extract the characteristics of eight clusters of rainfall events, and eight kinds of rainfall patterns were obtained. Last, after importing the rainfall patterns into the MIKE model of Qingshan Lake to conduct flood simulations, the impacts of different rainfall patterns on municipal systems and water conservancy systems were assessed by the depth and area of urban waterlogging, as well as the water levels and discharge of rivers. Based on this, three rainfall patterns are proposed as a designed rainfall pattern (DRP), an extreme rainfall pattern for urban drainage facilities verification (ERPUDFV) and an extreme rainfall pattern for water conservancy facilities verification (ERPWCFV), which aim to provide a reference basis for designing region-specific extreme rainfall patterns, as well as the verification of urban drainage and water conservancy facilities.

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Navigating catastrophe: lessons from Derna amid intensified flash floods in the Anthropocene

Ashoor,

Eladawy

2024

Euro-Mediterr J Environ Integr

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Water structures' resilience to accelerated global warming impacts is attracting increased attention. Adaptation to unprecedented flash floods in semi-arid regions (e.g., Middle East and North Africa (MENA)) is becoming more challenging under the huge uncertainty of their frequency and intensity, lack of accurate hydrological studies, and water-resilient cities' absence in these wadi systems. Ten to twenty percent of Derna's population (∼90,000 people) were reported dead and missing along with more than 35,000 residents having been displaced (also, 737 completely collapsed, and 2859 partially collapsed houses) following two destruction waves after two-dams failures during unprecedented storm Daniel on the 11 th of September 2023. In this study, we deeply investigated the causes and consequences of this significant main dam (i.e., Bu Mansour) breach. We started by discussing the history of dams in the region and the Derna flash flood protection system design background. Then, we rebuilt the most probable scenarios and simulated the dam break analysis validated by ground truthing methods. No matter how well-maintained the main dam was, the unprecedented Daniel storm flood highly exceeded its design capacity. Aside from the widely reported poor maintenance, our investigation of the overflow shafts of the two dams raised a potentially fatal design issue with the main dam. We concluded the most probable dynamics of the two dams' failure through two waves of destruction confirmed by diverse field observations. Ironically, the study concluded that a similar flood induced by the storm could leave much less damage in the case of the absence of any dams (i.e., far less maximum depth and velocity occurrence and fewer flooded areas). Hence, there is an urgent need to reassess similar dams' design criteria, upgrade, or simply deconstruct similar existing aging dams -including those with small annual storageto-design capacity ratios-along with relocating residents and infrastructure away from the lowlying areas, all aimed at safeguarding human lives in similar ungauged wadi systems.

show abstract

Storm Daniel revealed the fragility of the Mediterranean region

Cited by 7 publications

References 5 publications

Watch and Upgrade or Deconstruct and Relocate: Derna Catastrophe Lessons Amid the Climate-change Era of Unpredictable Flash Floods

Watch and Upgrade or Deconstruct and Relocate: Derna Catastrophe Lessons Amid the Climate-change Era of Unpredictable Flash Floods

Rainfall Pattern Construction Method Based on DTW-HCA and Urban Flood Simulation: A Case Study of Nanchang City, China

Navigating catastrophe: lessons from Derna amid intensified flash floods in the Anthropocene

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