Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19

Trigger, S. A.; Ignatov, A. M.

doi:10.1140/epjb/s10051-022-00457-z

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 34 publications

(90 reference statements)

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“…However, strain 2 would not establish itself if strain 1’s vaccination generated herd immunity and the transmission threshold for strain 2 remained low. Several studies have investigated the COVID-19 pandemic using two-strain models [ 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission between Minks and Humans Considering New Variants and Mink Culling

Ibrahim

Dénes

2023

TropicalMed

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We formulated and studied mathematical models to investigate control strategies for the outbreak of the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, considering the transmission between humans and minks. Two novel models, namely SEIR and SVEIR, are proposed to incorporate human-to-human, human-to-mink, and mink-to-human transmission. We derive formulas for the reproduction number R0 for both models using the next-generation matrix technique. We fitted our model to the daily number of COVID-19-infected cases among humans in Denmark as an example, and using the best-fit parameters, we calculated the values of R0 to be 1.58432 and 1.71852 for the two-strain and single-strain models, respectively. Numerical simulations are conducted to investigate the impact of control measures, such as mink culling or vaccination strategies, on the number of infected cases in both humans and minks. Additionally, we investigated the possibility of the mutated virus in minks being transmitted to humans. Our results indicate that to control the disease and spread of SARS-CoV-2 mutant strains among humans and minks, we must minimize the transmission and contact rates between mink farmers and other humans by quarantining such individuals. In order to reduce the virus mutation rate in minks, culling or vaccination strategies for infected mink farms must also be implemented. These measures are essential in managing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants, protecting public health, and mitigating the potential risks associated with human-to-mink transmission.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission between Minks and Humans Considering New Variants and Mink Culling

Ibrahim

Dénes

2023

TropicalMed

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On the repeated epidemic waves

Shnip,

Trigger

2024

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

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Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19

Trigger

Ignatov

2022

Eur. Phys. J. B

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The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This model can be considered as a kind of combination of SIR and SIS models for the case of competition of two strains of the same virus with different contagiousness in a population. The obtained equations and results can be directly implemented for practical calculations of the replacement of strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A comparison between the estimated replacement time and the corresponding statistics shows reasonable agreement. Graphic abstract

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Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19

Cited by 3 publications

References 34 publications

Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission between Minks and Humans Considering New Variants and Mink Culling

Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission between Minks and Humans Considering New Variants and Mink Culling

On the repeated epidemic waves

Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19

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