Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19

Trigger, S. A.; IGNATOV, ALEXANDER I.

doi:10.1101/2022.03.26.22272973

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2022

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“…The extended SIR-type model for COVID-19 waves has been presented in [28] (see also recent the paper [29]) to fit this model calculations to the data in Tonghua City in China (see also references therein). The qualitative consideration of "strain non-orthogonality" has been considered on the basis of simplified model in [30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19

Trigger

Ignatov

2022

Eur. Phys. J. B

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The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This model can be considered as a kind of combination of SIR and SIS models for the case of competition of two strains of the same virus with different contagiousness in a population. The obtained equations and results can be directly implemented for practical calculations of the replacement of strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A comparison between the estimated replacement time and the corresponding statistics shows reasonable agreement. Graphic abstract

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%