Strategic optimization operations in the integrated energy system through multitime scale comprehensive demand response

Abstract

In the context of the dual carbon goal strategy, the proportion of new energy generation has increased annually, large‐scale renewable energy integration has been achieved, and the intermittent and uncertain operating characteristics pose an enormous challenge to the complete and stable operation of an integrated energy system (IES), promoting the complexity of IES optimization models. To increase the stability and accuracy of the system and improve the operation efficiency of the system, a Gaussian mixture model is used to fit the probability distribution of wind power and the prediction errors of the photovoltaic output. In addition, the expected maximization method is used to solve a model with hidden variables, the results show that the expectation maximization algorithm can improve the fitting accuracy, reduce the error caused by the subjective setting of the initial value, and make the fitting accuracy of the wind‐solar power prediction error greater. Then, to solve the problem in which the low resolution of the day‐ahead scheduling time leads to large errors, day‐ahead, day‐to‐day multitime scale operation optimization model takes into account the comprehensive demand response according to the differences in wind and solar output and load forecasting accuracy. Finally, simulation validation is conducted in multiple scenarios, and a comparative analysis is performed for single and multitime scale comprehensive demand response scenarios. The simulation results show that compared with the optimization results of no demand response day, the optimization results of this model reduce the total cost by 23.21%, carbon emissions by 13.98%, purchased electricity by 13.87%, and purchased gas by 19.31%, effectively improving the use of gas turbines in the system. The multitime scale scheduling strategy increases the overall operating cost of the IES, modifies the scheduling results, and agrees with real operating scenarios.