Strategizing Social Security in the Labor Market in the Context of Transformation of Key Threats

Abstract

The aim of the article is to model strategies of social security in the labor market, which will provide an opportunity to conduct a scenario analysis of the effectiveness of current state policy measures, taking into account the impact of key threats to social security in the labor market and to strategize its priorities for the future in the context of the transformation of threats. The subject of the study is social security in the labor market and strategic priorities of its provision in the context of transformation of key threats. Methodology. To achieve the goal of the study, a set of general scientific and special methods was used, in particular abstract-logical (to determine methodological approaches to assessing the impact of key threats on the level of social security in the labor market), simulation modeling (to model strategies for ensuring social security in the labor market); system generalization (to substantiate strategic directions for ensuring social security in the labor market). Simulation modeling of strategies for ensuring social security in the labor market was carried out using economic indicators for 2006-2018, which makes it possible to specify the trends and factors of their change in the labor market in the conditions of its economic cyclicality (the period before and after the 2008 economic crisis, as well as the events of 2014 in Ukraine). Labor market indicators since 2019 were not taken into account in modeling strategies deliberately, since the study did not include an assessment of labor market parameters in the context of aggravation of social security risks that are pandemic (2020-2021) and military (2022) in nature due to their low controllability and spontaneity. The simulation model of the strategy for ensuring social security in the labor market was built using Powersim software. Results. The paper substantiates the expediency of using the method of simulation modeling as a tool for strategic management of complex socio-economic systems, in particular, relations in the labor market. The method of modeling social security strategies in the labor market, based on the method of simulation modeling, is proposed. The basis for the simulation experiment is to assess the dynamics of the main threats to social security in the labor market, expressed through seven economic indicators that characterize the security of employment and remuneration. Six variants of models of strategies for ensuring social security in the labor market have been generated, which illustrate certain types of state personnel and socio-economic policies that have been implemented (should be implemented) under the influence of certain transformation processes and environmental factors. Practical implications. The conclusions and methodological approaches to modeling strategies obtained as a result of the study can be implemented in the practice of state and regional management to reduce/neutralize the negative impact of certain types of threats on the labor market. Value/originality. The author's methodology of simulation modeling of strategies for ensuring social security in the labor market and a roadmap for strategizing social security in the labor market in the context of the transformation of key threats, which can be implemented at different levels of management.

Ukraine labour potential modelling based on using the theory of unclear logic

“…The theoreticalmethodological, scientificmethodical foundations of the formation of the strategy for the develop ment and preservation of the labour potential of Ukraine and the factors affecting the labour potential, in particular the study on the problem of social security in the labour market and the strategic priorities of its provision in the modern con ditions of the transformation of the main threats, are consid ered in scientific work [2]. Social support of unemployed ablebodied citizens as a factor in the development of labour potential [3] is now extremely important, because of military conditions and a high level of labour migration [4] there is a need to provide the economy with labour and create prereq uisites for the economic development of Ukraine.…”

“…The integral criterion of LP (denoted by the English letter D or R) is proposed to be divided into intervals from 1 to 10, in particular: d 1 (the value falls into the interval [1][2][3][4]) -LP at the macro level is at a low level; d 2 (interval value [4][5][6][7]) − LP at the macro level can be estimated as average; d3 (the value lies in the interval [7][8][9][10]) − LP at the macro level is at a high level.…”

“…The number of terms in LP mod elling can be different for the proposed variables (factors). Thus, the terms for evaluating such a variable as -"coefficient of coverage of emigration" by immigration are defined as fol lows: "Low" (L); "Average" (A); "High" (H), with a universal set in the interval [1][2][3][4][5]. The tree of logical conclusion of hier archical relationships of factors that allow one to assess the state of LP of Ukraine is shown in graph 2, where the root of the tree is the level of LP, and the leaves, respectively, medico demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural factors that have an impact on this level.…”