Stratified sampled synthetic hydrographs for flood risk calculations

Blanckaert, Joris; Swings, Jean-Pierre; Franken, Tim; Gullentops, Cedric

doi:10.1201/b13715-11

Cited by 2 publications

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“…As part of the Flemish implementation of the European Flood Directive, a probabilistic approach has been developed and applied to assess flood risk in Flemish non-navigable waterway catchments [1]. This methodology uses synthetic hydrographs, generated by stratified sampling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synthetic events for flood risk calculation by using a nested Copula structure

2016

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Risk analysis requires considering the entire frequency domain of flood consequences. Synthetic events were generated for the entire river system of the Scheldt estuary. This estuary contains multiple navigable waterways and is situated in Belgium and the Netherlands. Extreme water levels are influenced by rainfall-runoff discharges, tiding, storm surges, and wind speed and direction. For the generation of hydraulic boundary conditions for flood risk assessment, these influences and their mutual dependencies and correlations are taken into account by means of a nested extreme value copula structure. The variation in time is taken into account by standardized profiles, computed by normalizing all recorded extreme events and fitting a probability distribution to the variation of the standardized events, yielding 5 profile classes through another stratification. Eventually this resulted in a total of 1920 sets of synthetic events. All events were run through the hydrodynamic model of the river system. The frequency distribution of the resulting water levels are calculated by accumulation of the corresponding probabilities of occurrence of the synthetic events at each location. The methodology has the advantage that it determines a statistical distribution of consequences, rather than assigning frequencies to hydrodynamic boundary conditions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synthetic events for flood risk calculation by using a nested Copula structure

2016

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“…The methodology was based on the evaluation framework elaborated by Blanckaert et al (2012), and mentioned before in paragraph 2.1. with slight adaptations to fit the smaller scale of a catchment specific assessment.…”

Section: Engineering Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In collaboration with engineering consultants Flanders Environment Agency has developed a methodology to quantify the impact of climate change, land use evolutions and possible measures using economic and social risk maps [8,9]. These maps are produced using a chain of statistical, numerical and mathematical models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new approach for a renewed flood risk management in Flanders; the pilot case of the Maarkebeek catchment

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Based on the results of recent studies a renewed vision for flood risk management in Flanders took shape under the name of multi-layered water safety. The multi-layered water safety aims at reducing flood risk to a socially and economically acceptable level through an optimal mix of protective, preventive and preparedness measures, in which all actors in flood risk management face up to their responsibility. A new approach to develop a flood risk action plan based on the vision of multi-layered water safety was applied to the pilot case of the catchment of the Maarkebeek. Using a methodology based on quantitative economic as well as social risk values, potential measures are assessed taking climate change and land use projections into account. Measures and combinations that have a positive (or marginally but acceptable negative) cost-benefit ratio and a large social benefit are retained. These serve as a starting point for the debate on flood risk management with all the actors and for the consultation of the VWDNHKROGHUV $V D UHVXOW RI VHYHUDO DFWRU PHHWLQJV D µULYHU contract ¶ ZDV drafted. The river contract is a commitment of all actors to realise the listed measures, securing the collaborative effect. The river contract is an integrated response to the flood risk problem at catchment scale and aims at providing solutions to all affected households. This approach, applying multi-layered water safety to a local river catchment, combines an objective model-based assessment with intense stakeholder deliberation resulting in a widely accepted and objectively effective action plan i.e. the river contract, to manage flood risk in an efficient and sustainable way.

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Stratified sampled synthetic hydrographs for flood risk calculations

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Synthetic events for flood risk calculation by using a nested Copula structure

Synthetic events for flood risk calculation by using a nested Copula structure

A new approach for a renewed flood risk management in Flanders; the pilot case of the Maarkebeek catchment

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