Structural change and economic growth: Causality relationships in the case of Poland

Abstract

Research background: Structural change and economic growth characterise any process of economic development and have relevant research background. However, the research on identification of a character of relationships between the phenomena are not conclusive. Researchers either find that economic growth induces structural change and the process is demand-driven or that structural change determines economic growth and the dependencies are supply-driven or that the relation is two-directional with overlapping interdependencies. Moreover, the association may be shaped differently depending on specific development conditions of each economy and transform over time. Purpose of the article: The aim of the study is to investigate the relationships between economic growth and structural change in the sectional composition of employment in Poland using state-level quarterly data for 2008–2022. It empirically verifies whether economic growth determines structural change or changes in economic structure influence growth in this specific national context, giving insights into a character of the developmental interdependencies. However, the Polish case is only an example of developmental feedbacks that may specify any catching-up economy. Diagnosing the dominating character of the economic relation is of high importance for any modern transforming country and identifying any limitations to the interdependencies may make it possible to avoid the middle-income trap. Methods: The paper examines the causality using Granger-test and analyses the relationships with VAR models. It uses some alternative measures of structural change, namely Norm of Absolute Value (NAV), Modified Lilien Index (MLI), and Clark Index (CI) to catch labour reallocation across sections of economic activity (NACE Rev. 2). They are then adopted in lead-lag models of relationships with economic growth. Findings & value added: The study browses the classical three-sectoral approach to structural transformation using a more detailed structural layout to capture its modern character. Moreover, it compares alternative measures of structural change to derive more detailed conclusions. Methodologically, the study highlights the need for in-depth research into structural change with finer aggregation and measures with different properties. The paper is focused on a specific situation in the Polish economy, for which the relationships have not yet been verified. However, the findings are more universal and may be interesting for any catching-up economy that plans its development policy and needs to focus either on demand- or supply side-relationships. The results suggest rather unidirectional causality running from economic growth to structural change and thus a demand-driven character of the structural modernisation of the Polish economy. This implies the necessity to build stronger inter-sectoral linkages that enable spillover effects that can accelerate growth and induce mutually reinforcing mechanisms of development.