STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF UKRAINIAN GOODS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21st CENTURY

Abstract

The article proves the need to study the structural changes in exports and imports of Ukrainian goods. In view of this, the author used his own method of quantitative analysis of structural changes, which was described in detail by him in previous works. The proposed method is based in part on the work of Polish researchers. On the basis of this method the analysis of process of structural changes which provides definition and an estimation of intensity (depth) of changes; development of changes; constancy (monotony) of changes in exports and imports of Ukrainian goods is carried out. The second aspect of the analysis involved the analysis of changes in the structure of exports and imports of goods, which involves the decomposition of structural changes at the level of structural elements and analysis of changes in size and shape of the structure on this basis. According to the results of the analysis, it is shown that at the beginning of the study period the metals and metal products, machinery, equipment and transport, food products and agricultural products were the basis of exports of goods. At the end of the study period, the priorities of Ukrainian exports of goods changed: the food products and agricultural products came in the first place in the structure. Changes in the structure of exports have shown that the world economy needs Ukrainian raw materials and agricultural products, i.e. Ukrainian exports have saved their raw materials and semi-raw materials orientation. In general, changes in terms of the interests of the national economy can be considered as negative. This is one of the evidences of noncompetitiveness of the Ukrainian processing, light and food industries. It is argued that the structure of imports of Ukrainian goods is asymmetric to exports. The main components of imports are high-tech products (electrical machinery and equipment, nuclear reactors, cars and vehicles, devices and optical devices), fuel and energy products, chemical products, pharmaceuticals, which is one of the indirect proofs of the orientation of Ukraine’s economy towards consumption. It should be noted that changes in the import’s goods structure took place under the influence of liberalization of tariff regulation of foreign trade in Ukraine under the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union and under the influence of events in the east. Analysis of exports and imports of goods in Ukraine has shown that the current structure of production preserves the export orientation of the national economy and its raw material specialization, and this increases the dependence of the Ukrainian economy on market fluctuations in international markets.