Structural Demographic Waves of Russian Regions: Preliminary Analysis

Abstract

The article shows how political, economic, environmental and other events, phenomena and processes (external factors) lead to sharp changes in the age structure of the population of the regions of Russia, creating structural waves, that is, steep changes in population by age. It is revealed how various components of the demographic balance (internal factors) in dynamics affect the perturbation and smoothing of age-related structural waves. Taking into account the experience of previous studies and on the basis of a large array of empirical data, the use of two generalizing meters of demographic structural waves of the regions of the Russian Federation is justified. The first indicator is the coefficient of unevenness of th7e age structure of the population regarding the structure of the calculated series of "Numbers living in a given age interval". The second indicator is a combination of two coefficients of structural differences (shifts) used in practice, A. Szalai and K. Gatev. The results of a comparative analysis of structural demographic waves in all regions of Russia for the last year before the start of the pandemic in 2019 are reflected. All regions of Russia are ranked according to the proposed coefficients of unevenness. Fourmain groups of territories have been identified from the regions according to the degree of unevenness of the age structure of the population. The main factors that caused this unevenness are revealed. The task of smoothing the structural demographic waves in the young population (0-45 years old) by building and implementing a time-emphasized and regionally accentuated concept of demographic policy in the field of fertility, interregional and international migration has been substantiated. This concept should be coordinated with the strategy of Russia's demographic development.