Studies on Crop Yields and Their Extreme Value Analysis over India

Abstract

Trends of rice, wheat, maize, sorghum (jowar) and pearl millet (bazra) yields of India are studied in relation to water irrigation for the period 1951 to 2012. These crop yields have been subjected to correlation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), obtained from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) (for 1982 to 2000) and Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra (for 2001 to 2012) to understand the linear association among them. Crop products and food inadequacy in percentage along with the average food production rate, available from FAO have been used in the present study. The present study mainly focuses on the estimation of return values of crop yields for different periods using Gumbell Extreme Value analysis. The present study is very important in the context of increased global food demands by 2050 where in many studies report that food production to be doubled by the year 2050 to meet the demands of increasing population. The main results of the study are: (i) significant positive correlations between NDVI and the crop yields during the study period; (ii) rice, maize and jowar yields did not show the required incremental rate while wheat and bajra yields are able to meet the expectations by the 2050. More efforts require to an increase of additional ~8% in the rice yields as the present growth is only ~12% and ought to be enhanced to ~20%.

Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops

“…These projected changes are still well below acceptable global standards to achieve food security. The above finding agrees with [38], where it was reported that due to the predicted increase in food demand worldwide by 2050, there must be incremental yield, needing more to be done to meet the targeted approximate 20% increase in the yield of crops to tackle food sufficiency. Research [34] also concluded that the net impact of climate change on oil palm yield in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is positive, in line with the positive effects of climate change on the yield of crops considered for this study.…”

Modeling N fertilization impact on water cycle and water use efficiency of maize, finger‐millet, and lablab crops in South India

“…The city of Bengaluru has experienced a rapid expansion over the last decades, which have seen it growing into a mega city with over 10 million inhabitants (Government of India, Ministry of Home Affairs, 2011;Narayana, 2011). This resulted in a transformation of the agricultural production toward more intense crop management practices associated with higher fertilization rates (Bora, 2022) and increased irrigation (Mishra et al, 2020;Sankar et al, 2011) which led to higher annual crop yields in rural and urban areas (Government of Karnataka, 2007Karnataka, , 2011Karnataka, , 2014bLakshmi Kumar et al, 2019;Ritchie et al, 2022). On the other hand, the city has been facing serious challenges to meet the growing water demand, and groundwater resources have been over-exploited, which has led to the main river in the Arkavathy catchment to dry up since 1990 (Raj, 2016;Srinivasan et al, 2015).…”