Study of Perspective and Prospective Aspects on Indonesia Balance of Payment in 1980-2017

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of Interest Rate, Economic Growth, Domestic Credit and Foreign Exchange against Foreign Reserves. The analysis is based on Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment (MABP) theory. The object of research is the value of Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserve. This study uses quarterly time series data from 1980 to 2017. Data analysis methods used are Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) with GARCH (1.1), ARCH in mean (ARCH-M), Threshold ARCH (TARCH) and GARCH (1,1) with the Variant Regressor. The selection of the best model is based on the level of significance, the value of Akaike Info Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Criterion. The selected model is the TARCH estimation method. Based on the TARCH output, it can be concluded that all independent variables have significant effect on the Foreign Exchange Reserve, except Domestic Credit. The direction of the relationship of each variable is consistent with the theory of Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment (MABP).