Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part I: model development

Sun, Ren; Wang, Xiaoling; Zhou, Zhengyin; Ao, Xuefei; Sun, Xiaopei; Song, Mingrui

doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1154-z

Cited by 44 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Dams, considered to be "structures of public utility," play an essential role in controlling and harvesting benefits from floods and always pose potential risks to human life and property on their downstream side in the event of flood [1][2][3]. According to the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD), overtopping causes about 35% of all earth dam failures, seepage, and piping, while other causes make up the rest, and floods are the driving forces in dam overtopping [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Chen¹,

Lin²

2018

Water

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Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF) used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Chen¹,

Lin²

2018

Water

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“…In order to facilitate analysis, the indices can be divided into five grades on average [14], There are great differences in the characteristics of impact indices of dam breach consequences in different countries. Taking China as an example, values and standardization of indices are analyzed.…”

Section: Standardization Of Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Standardization of IndicesIn order to facilitate analysis, the indices can be divided into five grades on average[14], i.e., {slight; general; moderate; serious; extremely serious} ∈ {[0,0.2); [0.2,0.4); [0.4,0.6); [0.6,0.8); [0.8,1]}.…”

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confidence: 99%

A Method for Fast Evaluation of Potential Consequences of Dam Breach

Jiao

Sun

et al. 2019

Water

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Dam breach has catastrophic consequences for human lives and economy. In previous studies, empirical models are often, to a limited extent, due to the inadequacy of historical dam breach events. Physical models, which focus on simulating human behavior during floods, are not suitable for fast analysis of a large number of dams due to the complexities of many key parameters. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for fast evaluation of potential consequences of dam breach. Eight main indices, i.e., capacity of reservoir (C R ), dam height (H D ), population at risk (P R ), economy at risk (E R ), understanding of dam breach (U B ), industry type (T I ), warning time (T W ), and building vulnerability (V B ), are selected to establish an evaluation index system. A catastrophe evaluation method is introduced to establish an evaluation model for potential consequences of dam breach based on the indices which are divided into five grades according to the relevant standards and guidelines. Validation of the method by twelve historical dam breach events shows a good accuracy. The method is applied to evaluate potential consequences of dam breach of Jiangang Reservoir in Henan Province, China. It is estimated that loss of life in the worst scenario is between that of Hengjiang Reservoir and that of Shimantan Reservoir dam breach, of which fatalities are 941 and 2717, respectively, showing that risk management measures should be taken to reduce the risk of potential loss of life.August 2018. Consequently, the risk consequences of dam breach have always attracted the attention of researchers.Originally, empirical models, which are based on historical events, were established to evaluate consequences of dam breach. Brown and Graham (1988) provided a conceptual model of variables influencing the LOL from dam failure and a method for predicting LOL based on the size of the population at risk (P R ) from failure and the amount of warning time (T W ) available for that population [7]. DeKay and McClelland (1993) proposed an expression for LOL in terms of warning time (T W ) and population at risk (P R ). The forcefulness of the floods was derived from the historical records of dam breach and flash flood cases via logistic regression [8]. These studies are often, to a limited extent, based on empirical data of historical flood events, most of which are of low availability, resulting in low accuracy in most applications.Thereafter, multiple physical models were established, which focus on simulating human behavior during floods. Assaf and Hartford (2002) developed a virtual reality approach (BC Hydro's Life Safety Model (LSM)) to deal with the problems of failure consequence analysis and emergency planning that are not amenable to resolution through existing analysis techniques, which is undergoing continued development [9]. Aboelata and Bowles (2008) demonstrated the deterministic uncertainty modes of calculation model of LOL named LIFESim, which was sponsored by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Australian National...

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“…Dams and Reservoirs are mainly constructed to store surplus water in wet season which can be used during dry season when the natural flow is inadequate to meet the demands. Reservoirs and dams play an essential role in controlling and harvesting benefits from floods and always pose potential risks to human life and property on their downstream side in the event of flood [4,5,6]. Special consideration should be given to all hydraulic structures such as dams or flood control embankment to prevent collapse of those structures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Risk Assessment of Gibe III Dam by Using L-Moment

Tola¹

2019

AJWSE

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A hydrological analysis for assessing the risk of dam overtopping is required for both dam designing and dam safety checking. There is enormous amount of water to be stored in the reservoir to provide valuable service such as hydroelectric power generation and flood control. However dams can cause catastrophic damage to both life and property if they experience performance failures due to overtopping and inadequate spillway design. The hydrological risk was computed from historical peak flow data of Gilgel Gibe near Abelti, Gojeb near Shebe and Wabi near Wolkite, of major rivers flowing towards Gibe III Dam, respectively. From the flood statistics of rivers, the general extreme value (GEV) distribution was fitted to peak flow using L-moment. In this research made an attempt, the extreme event or probability of maximum discharge occurrence at dam site analyzed by associating peak occurrence with the service life of Dam and estimated the hydrological risk at Gibe III Dam. It finds PWM method is very suitable for three river flow condition flowing toward Gibe III Dam. The hydrological risk at Gibe III predicted for 50, 100 and 150 years with respect of Discharge range of 2730m 3 /s to 3180m 3 /s was observed there is a risk decreases as return period increases.

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Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part I: model development

Cited by 44 publications

References 33 publications

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

A Method for Fast Evaluation of Potential Consequences of Dam Breach

Hydrological Risk Assessment of Gibe III Dam by Using L-Moment

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