Study of the Relationship Between the Mean Annual Sum of Atmospheric Precipitation and Re-Activated and New Mudflow Cases in Georgia

Abstract

Taking into account the earlier statistical analysis of long-term variations in the of annual sum of precipitation for 21 Georgian meteorological stations (P) located in mudflow areas, the relationship between the average annual precipitation for these stations (Pₐ) and the number of re-activated and new cases of mudflows (MF) was studied. Using previously obtained forecast data for Pₐ, the MF values were calculated up to 2045. The data of the Georgian Environment Agency on MF for the period 1996-2018 were used.
 In particular, the following results are obtained.
 Cross-correlation analysis of the time series of Pₐ and MF values showed that the best correlation between the indicated parameters is observed with a five-year advance of precipitation data. With this in mind, a linear regression equation between the five-year moving average Pₐ and the five-year moving average MF is derived.
 Using this equation and Pₐ forecast data, five-year moving averages of re-activated and new mudflow events up to 2045 were estimated.