Study on development potential of newly added wind power heating in Beijing–Tianjin—Hebei under carbon emission reduction

Abstract

Electric heating is helpful in resolving air pollution, and also utilizes renewable energy power. However, the environmental benefits of electric heating are restrained by regional resources endowment and regional electrical energy structure. In the context of the active promotion of electric heating in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the paper studied the development potential and limits of wind power electric heating under the constraints of environmental effects to provide reference for the orderly development of electric heating. A model to predict the capacity of the installed wind power improved by the fruit fly optimized ELM (Extreme Learning Machine) algorithm and an electric heating environment effect calculation model are constructed. The optimal value and critical value of the newly added heating area in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are obtained through calculation under four scenarios of wind abandonment rate. As the wind abandonment rate increases from 4-10% (with interval of 2%), the optimal value of the newly added electric heating area in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will be 19. 15, 29.47, 36.26, and 47.90 million m 2 by the year 2030. Additionally, as the utilization rate of thermal power exceeds 41.16%, electric heating will produce more carbon emissions compared to coal-fired heating. Therefore, if we want to develop electric heating on a large scale, we need to control the proportion of thermal power in the power supply structure and increase the proportion of new energy. This study can be used as theoretical reference to the development programme of electric energy substitution in the future.