Study on the temporal and spatial trend of viral hepatitis in China from 2007 to 2019

Abstract

Objective To understand the temporal and spatial trend of viral hepatitis incidence in China and to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis. Method Data on viral hepatitis reported in 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China (excluding Macau Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and Taiwan Province) from 2007 to 2019 were collected. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) were used to analyze the temporal trend of viral hepatitis. The spatial trend analysis, global spatial autocorrelation, and local spatial autocorrelation were used to analyze the spatial trend of viral hepatitis. Results The AAPC of incidence of viral hepatitis in China from 2007 to 2015 showed a downward trend (AAPC2007 − 2019 = -1.4; 95% CI: 2.5, 0.3; P < 0.01). The connection point of the trend curve was 2015. From 2007–2015, the curve showed a significant downward trend (APC2007 − 2015 = -2.51%; 95% CI: -3.6, -1.4; P < 0.01). From 2015–2019, the trend was not statistically significant (APC2015 − 2019 = 0.75%; 95% CI: -2.5, 4.1; P = 0.608). The average incidence rate of viral hepatitis showed a spatial trend of high in the south and low in the north, and high in the west and low in the east. The global spatial autocorrelation from 2007 to 2019 was positive (Moran's I > 0, P < 0.01), showing an aggregated pattern. The local spatial autocorrelation high-high (H-H) aggregated regions include Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, and Guangdong; there is no high-low (H-L) aggregated regions; Low-high (L-H) aggregated regions include Tibet, Shaanxi and Gansu; and low-low (L-L) aggregated regions include Shanghai and Jiangsu. Conclusion The temporal change in the incidence of viral hepatitis in China from 2004 to 2019 generally showed a downward trend, but the spatial distribution was still aggregated. The H-H aggregated regions shifted from the northwestern region to the southern region, and regarding prevention and control of viral hepatitis, special attention should be paid to Guangdong and neighboring provinces.