Sub-national TIMES model for analyzing future regional use of biomass and biofuels in Sweden and France

Abstract

International audienceThe objective of this study is to improve evaluations of the future use of biomass sources in Sweden and France by representing the high spatial variations of the supply and cost of biomass sources in energy system models. The proposed methodology considers a high spatial disaggregation of biomass supply sources, as well as detailed biomass cost-supply curves, and is thereby able to account for spatial differences in heterogeneous land qualities, management strategies, and possible adaptation rates. Integrating the methodology into national or regional energy system models will enhance cost-effective evaluations of biomass sources as well as the development of the bioenergy sector. A TIMES energy system model was used to evaluate bioenergy production potential for France and Sweden based on domestic biomass sources and under the assumption that bioenergy production should not be at the expense of domestic food and forestry supply. Results show that by 2050, the biomass sources considered could provide as much as 250PJ of bioenergy in Sweden, and 1470PJ of bioenergy in France. Results further showed that 1st generation biofuels are likely to continue to play a substantial role in the biofuel mix. While 2nd generation biofuel production in Sweden is likely to be low, larger amounts of 2nd generation biofuels could be produced in France. However, the amount and type of 2nd generation biofuel produced in France was found to be highly dependent on the bioenergy demand level

Long-term projections of liquid biofuels in China: Uncertainties and potential benefits

“…For non-grain starchbased and sugar-based energy crops, marginal land resource data is obtained from Refs. [14,6]. For woody oil crops and woody starch crops, marginal land resource data is based on the development plan of the State Forestry Administration [35].…”

“…[13] and an evaluation of bioenergy production potential for France and Sweden is carried out in Ref. [14]. However, in-depth modeling of biofuels potential in China remains lacking.…”

Pathways for a Brazilian biobased economy: towards optimal utilization of biomass

“…This is shown by studies focusing especially on the integration of biomass in ESMs. Current approaches have limitations in either the portfolio of conversion technologies or in accounting, fully or partly, for limited land resource availability . Studies focusing on the use of least‐cost ESMs in the future energy system of Brazil also do not explicitly address the integration of biomass availability, or a full range of biomass conversion technologies, as they focus on other aspects of the energy system .…”

Impacts of Reclassified Brown Coal Reserves on the Energy System and Deep Decarbonisation Target in the Czech Republic

“…A model may be then further detailed in several ways. One possible way of extending the model is to descend from national level to regional model in order to better reflect regional diversity in the particular energy market, such as better representation of the heating sector that allows making better links to localized heat demand or inclusion of regionally specific biomass supply and hence region-specific costs [16,22,25]. Another stream of the model extension aims at temporal and/or operational detail of the model.…”

“…Nevertheless, the most common approach being followed in the literature (e.g., [16,22,25]) relies on one set of fuel prices and technology costs that are both exogenous parameters of the model. This paper extends the TIMES model structure with respect to usage of detailed operational data and linking technology operation to emissions and the damage they cause.…”