Sunspots and earthquakes

Meeus, J.; Gribbin, John

doi:10.1063/1.3023508

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Taken together, the p ‐values listed in Tables and do not support rejection of the null hypothesis of no solar‐terrestrial triggering of earthquakes. This evaluation is more quantitative than the assertion by Meeus [] that sunspots and earthquakes are not significantly correlated. In general terms, our analysis is also consistent with Jeffreys [], who did not find any significant 11 year solar‐cycle modulation in seismicity, and it is consistent with the analysis of Michael [], who found that the occurrence of large earthquakes is statistically indistinguishable from a time‐stationary Poisson process (no clustering, no modulation, no trend).…”

Section: χ2 and Student's Hypothesis Testsmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…The statistical significance of a possible correlation between sunspots and seismicity has occasionally been questioned [e.g., Jeffreys , ; Meeus , ], and for certain geographic regions, correlation between solar‐terrestrial variables and seismicity has actually been shown to be insignificant [e.g., Stothers , ; Yesugey , ]. Still, reports that identify such correlations continue to be published, especially lately.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Insignificant solar‐terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

Love

Thomas

2013

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by w 2 and Student's t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.

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Section: χ2 and Student's Hypothesis Testsmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insignificant solar‐terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

Love

Thomas

2013

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The problem of possible relation of solar activity and the Earth seismicity is discussed over 170 years [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20], and references therein. Despite a fairly large number of publications devoted to research of the possible influence of the Sun on seismic processes, a final conclusion about a possibility of triggering earthquakes (EQs) by solar flares (SFs) or geomagnetic storms has not yet been made.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible Interrelations of Space Weather and Seismic Activity: An Implication for Short-term Earthquake Prediction

Sorokin,

Novikov

2024

Preprint

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The statistical analysis of impact of the top 50 solar flares of X-class (1997-2023) on the global seismic activity, as well as on the earthquake preparation zones located in illuminated part of the globe and in the area of 5000 km radius around the subsolar point was carried out. It is shown by a method of epoch superposition that for all cases the increase of seismicity is observed, especially in the region around the subsolar point (up to 38%) during 10 days after the solar flare in comparison with preceding 10 days. The case study of aftershock sequence of strong M=9.1 earthquake (Su-matra-Andaman Islands, 26.12.2004) after the solar flare of X7.2 class (20.01.2005) demonstrated that the number of aftershocks with magnitude M≥2.5 increases more than 20 times after the solar flare with a delay of 7 days. For the case of the Darfield earthquake (M=7.1, 04.09.2010, New Zealand) it was shown that strong solar flares of class X and M probably triggered two strong aftershocks (M>6) with the same delay of 6 days on the Port Hills fault, which is the most sensitive to external electromagnetic impact from point of view of the fault electrical conductivity and orientation. Based on the obtained results the possible application of natural electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes is discussed for a short-term earthquake prediction using confidently recorded strong external electromagnetic triggering impacts on the specific earthquake preparation zones, as well as ionospheric perturbations due to aerosol emission from the earthquake sources recorded by satellites.

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“…Поиск солнечно-земных связей, приводящих к инициированию землетрясений, продолжается до сих пор. Делаются попытки связать сейсмическую активность с числом солнечных пятен (числом Вольфа) [Wolf, 1853;Simpson, 1967;Gribbin, 1971;Meeus, 1976;Odintsov et al, 2006;Tavarez, Azevedo, 2011], геомагнитными бурями [Соболев и др., 2001;Закржевская, Соболев, 2002;Urata et al, 2018;Соболев, 2021], Sq-вариациями геомагнитного поля [Duma, Ruzhin, 2003;Rabeh et al, 2010], геомагнитными джерками [Florindo, Alfonsi, 1995;Florindo et al, 1996], солнечным ветром [Tarasov, 2021], плотностью потоков высокоэнергетических частиц [Shestopalov, Kharin, 2014;Marchitelli et al, 2020] и солнечными вспышками [Соболев и др., 1998;Sorokin et al, 2019;Novikov et al, 2020]. Полученные к настоящему времени результаты такого поиска являются нечеткими, в некоторых случаях -противоположными, и, как утверждается в работах [Love, Thomas, 2013;Akhoondzadeh, De Santis, 2022], до сих пор не была продемонстрирована ни одна статистически значимая корреляция глобальной сейсмичности с одним из указанных выше внешних электромагнитных воздействий.…”

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Physical Model and Numerical Estimates of Telluric Currents Generated by X-Ray Radiation of a Solar Flare

Новиков,

Сорокин,

Ященко

et al. 2023

Динамические Процессы В Геосферах

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Современные исследования солнечно-земных связей и возможного влияния космической погоды на сейсмическую активность основаны на статистическом анализе без детального рассмотрения возможных физических механизмов, что приводит к нечетким или противоречивым выводам. Предлагается рассмотреть гипотезу об электромагнитном инициировании землетрясений резким всплеском теллурических токов в литосфере, включая сейсмогенные разломы земной коры, за счет взаимодействия рентгеновского излучения солнечной вспышки с системой «ионосфера-атмосфера-литосфера». Эта гипотеза основана на полевых и лабораторных экспериментах, проведенных в России в течение последних сорока лет, убедительно продемонстрировавших возможность инициирования землетрясений за счет подачи электрического тока в разлом земной коры. Представлена математическая модель и компьютерная программа для численных оценок теллурических токов, генерируемых излучением солнечных вспышек. Проведенные численные оценки показывают, что солнечные вспышки могут генерировать теллурические токи в проводящих слоях земной коры, плотность которых сопоставима с плотностями токов, создаваемых в земной коре искусственными импульсными электрическими источниками и способных инициировать землетрясения. Следовательно, инициирование сейсмических событий возможно не только искусственными источниками электрического тока, но и ионосферными возмущениями, вызванными сильными солнечными вспышками. Данная модель может быть использована для оценки сейсмической опасности в период вариаций параметров космической погоды, в частности, импульсных изменений геомагнитного поля, обусловленных сильными солнечными вспышками Current studies of solar-terrestrial relationships and the possible impact of space weather on seismic activity are based on statistical analysis without detailed consideration of possible physical mechanisms that results in unclear or contradictory conclusions. It is proposed to consider the hypothesis of electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes by a sharp burst of telluric currents in the lithosphere, including seismogenic crust faults, due to interaction of X-ray radiation of a solar flare with the «ionosphere- atmosphere-lithosphere» system. This hypothesis is based on the field and laboratory experiments carried out in Russia over the past forty years that convincingly demonstrated a possibility of triggering of earthquakes by injection of electric current into the crust faults. A mathematical model and a computer code for numerical estimates of telluric currents generated by solar flare radiation are presented. The numerical estimates performed show that solar flares can generate telluric currents in the conducting layers of the Earth's crust with a density comparable to the densities of currents generated in the crust by artificial pulsed power sources capable to trigger earthquakes. Consequently, the triggering of seismic events is possible not only by artificial sources of electric current, but also by ionospheric disturbances caused by strong solar flares. This model can be used to assess the seismic hazard during the period of strong variations in space weather parameters, in particular, pulsed changes in the geomagnetic field caused by strong solar flares of X-class.

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Sunspots and earthquakes

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Insignificant solar‐terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

Insignificant solar‐terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

Possible Interrelations of Space Weather and Seismic Activity: An Implication for Short-term Earthquake Prediction

Physical Model and Numerical Estimates of Telluric Currents Generated by X-Ray Radiation of a Solar Flare

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