Supply chain diversity buffers cities against food shocks

Abstract

Food supply shocks are increasing worldwide, urging discovery of methods to manage the risk of food shock and boost food supply chain resilience. Ecological theory suggests that network structure is crucial for the resilience of the food supply chain. Here we show that boosting a city’s food supply chain diversity increases the resistance of a city to food shocks of mild to moderate severity up to 15%. We develop an intensity-duration-frequency model linking food shock risk to supply chain diversity. The empirical-statistical model is based on annual food inflow observations from all metropolitan areas in the United States during the years 2012-2015, years when most of the country experienced moderate to severe droughts. This model is simple, operationally useful, and hazard-agnostic. Using this method cities can improve their resistance to food supply shocks with policies that increase the food supply chain’s diversity.