Surface runoff processes and sustainable utilization of water resources in Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China

Ling, Hongbo; Xu, Hongbo; Fu, Jun‐Heng; Xin-hua, Liu

doi:10.3724/sp.j.1227.2012.00271

Cited by 27 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…As a typical inland river in the arid region in Northwest China, the Manas River basin, which has snow storage and melting characteristics, is sensitive to climate change, and the seasonal variation of snowmelt runoff is caused by temperature increases [15][16][17]. The annual runoff showed an increasing trend and increased by about 10% in the last decades because of the increase of precipitation, glacial melt water, and temperature in Northwest China [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The annual runoff showed an increasing trend and increased by about 10% in the last decades because of the increase of precipitation, glacial melt water, and temperature in Northwest China [18]. The runoff in Hongshanzui, Kensiwate, and Bajiahu revealed an obvious increasing trend and significant abrupt changes [17]. He and Guo [19] studied the influence of climate change on water resources in the Manas River basin using a monthly water balance model modified with snowmelt considering the hypothetical scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Study on Variations in Climatic Variables and Their Influence on Runoff in the Manas River Basin, China

Ren

Xue

Liu

et al. 2017

Water

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Climate change in Northwest China could lead to the change of the hydrological cycle and water resources. This paper assessed the influence of climate change on runoff in the Manas River basin as follows. First, the temporal trends and abrupt change points of runoff, precipitation, and mean, lowest and highest temperature in yearly scale during the period of 1961-2015 were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Then the correlation between runoff and climatic variables was characterized in a monthly, seasonal and yearly scale using the partial correlation method. Furthermore, three global climate models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were bias-corrected using Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Functions (EDCDF) method to reveal the future climate change during the period from 2021 to 2060 compared with the baseline period of 1961-2000. The influence of climate change on runoff was studied by simulating the runoff with the GCMs using a modified TOPMODEL considering the future snowmelt during the period from 2021 to 2060. The results showed that the runoff, precipitation, and mean, lowest and highest temperature all presented an increasing trend in yearly scale during the period of 1961-2015, and their abrupt change points were at a similar time; the runoff series was more strongly related to temperature than to precipitation in the spring, autumn and yearly scales, and the opposite was true in winter. All GCMs projected precipitation and temperature, and the runoff simulated with these GCMs were predicted to increase in the period from 2021 to 2060 compared with the baseline period of 1961-2000. These findings provide valuable information for assessing the influence of climate change on water resources in the Manas River basin, and references for water management in such regions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Variations in Climatic Variables and Their Influence on Runoff in the Manas River Basin, China

Ren

Xue

Liu

et al. 2017

Water

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“…As a result, numerous inland river systems emerged (Cheng and Zhao, 2008). The runoffs generated in the upstream mountainous areas supply the midstream and downstream areas (Ling et al, 2012); thus, the survival and development of the economic and ecological systems of inland river basins are maintained. Therefore, research on hydrological processes in mountainous areas is consistently significant in the resource and environmental fields (Kang et al, 2008).…”

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confidence: 99%

Simulation of hydrological processes of mountainous watersheds in inland river basins: taking the Heihe Mainstream River as an example

et al. 2013

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The hydrological processes of mountainous watersheds in inland river basins are complicated. It is absolutely significant to quantify mountainous runoff for social, economic and ecological purposes. This paper takes the mountainous watershed of the Heihe Mainstream River as a study area to simulate the hydrological processes of mountainous watersheds in inland river basins by using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. SWAT simulation results show that both the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the determination coefficient values of the calibration period (January 1995 to December 2002) and validation period (January 2002 to December 2009) are higher than 0.90, and the percent bias is controlled within ±5%, indicating that the simulation results are satisfactory. According to the SWAT performance, we discussed the yearly and monthly variation trends of the mountainous runoff and the runoff components. The results show that from 1996 to 2009, an indistinctive rising trend was observed for the yearly mountainous runoff, which is mainly recharged by lateral flow, and followed by shallow groundwater runoff and surface runoff. The monthly variation demonstrates that the mountainous runoff decreases slightly from May to July, contrary to other months. The mountainous runoff is mainly recharged by shallow groundwater runoff in January, February, and from October to December, by surface runoff in March and April, and by lateral flow from May to September.

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“…As mentioned above, snow and glaciers are the main sources of water for the low land of the Tian-shan Mountains [23]. The agricultural production in this area uses a large amount of river water derived from glacier melt [24].…”

Section: Methodology 31 Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological modeling in the Manas River Basin using soil and water assessment tool driven by CMADS

et al. 2017

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Original scientific paper Hydrological simulation in meteorological ungauged areas has always been a difficult problem for the study on atmospheric and hydrological coupling; meanwhile, it is also one of the important factors that restrict model development and basin water resource knowledge. To analyze the mechanism of atmospheric and hydrological coupling, this study quantitatively evaluated water cycle situation in basins covered with glaciers and snow, and chose the Manas River Basin (MRB) in China as the typical research area to verify the adaptability of the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (CMADS). The SWAT model was firstly built to simulate water resources, then we calibrated the model with CMADS dataset and started localization in the Manas River Basin (MRB), China, and finally calibrated simulated runoff with observed data SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). In addition, parameter sensitivity analysis, and parameter calibration and validation were also included in the present study. Results showed that the SWAT model could well reproduce the runoff process of two stations (Kenswat and Hongshanzui) in the research area by using data from CMADS. The simulation performed well on monthly scale in both stations, where R 2 = (0,556÷0,999) and NSE = (0,937÷0,998), and also showed satisfactory effects, where R 2 = (0,927÷0,993) and NSE = (0,836÷0,997).Our research suggests that the SWAT model can show satisfactory results through parameter calibration in areas with high glacial recharge rate. Moreover, CMADS can provide necessary meteorological data for SWAT simulations, and support parameter calibration and historical surface data analysis. Hidrološko modeliranje u porječju rijeke Manas primjenom alata za procjenu tla i vode pomoću CMADS-aIzvorni znanstveni članka Hidrološka simulacija u meteorološki neispitanim područjima oduvijek je težak problem u proučavanju atmosferskih i hidroloških odnosa; to je također jedan od važnih faktora koji ograničavaju razvoj modela i spoznaju o izvoru vode u porječju. U svrhu analize atmosferskih i hidroloških odnosa; u radu se daje kvantitativna procjena promjene vodotokova u porječjima prekrivenim ledenjacima i snijegom, te je izabrano porječje rijeke Manas (Manas River Basin -MRB) u Kini kao tipično područje istraživanja u svrhu provjere prilagodljivosti meteoroloških podataka u Kini (China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets) -CMADS, za model alata za procjenu tla i vode -Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT). Taj se model prvenstveno koristio za simulaciju izvora vode, a zatim smo ga kalibrirali s podacima CMADS-a, lokalizirali u porječje rijeke Manas (MRB), Kina, te konačno kalibrirali simulirano oticanje s dobivenim podacima SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Uz to, u ovo je istraživanje također uključena analiza osjetljivosti parametara te ocjena i kalibriranje parametara. Rezultati su pokazali da se modelom SWAT može dobro reproducirati proces oticanja v...

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Surface runoff processes and sustainable utilization of water resources in Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China

Cited by 27 publications

References 12 publications

Study on Variations in Climatic Variables and Their Influence on Runoff in the Manas River Basin, China

Study on Variations in Climatic Variables and Their Influence on Runoff in the Manas River Basin, China

Simulation of hydrological processes of mountainous watersheds in inland river basins: taking the Heihe Mainstream River as an example

Hydrological modeling in the Manas River Basin using soil and water assessment tool driven by CMADS

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