Objective
Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair (TEVAR) is known to have a mortality benefit over open repair in patients with descending thoracic aneurysms, and has become a mainstay of therapy. Because death before 1 year after TEVAR likely indicates an ineffective therapy, we have created a predictive model for mortality within 1-year using factors available in the preoperative setting.
Methods
A registry of 526 TEVARs performed at the University of Florida between September 2000 and November 2010 was queried for patients with degenerative descending thoracic aneurysm as their primary pathology. Procedures with emergent or urgent indications were excluded. Pre-operatively available variables such as baseline co-morbidities, anatomic and procedure specific planning details were recorded. Univariate predictors of mortality were analyzed with multivariable Cox proportional hazards to identify independent predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality, defined as mortality within 30 days and within one year following TEVAR, respectively.
Results
A total of 224 patients were identified and evaluated. Thirty-day and 1-year mortality were 3% (n=7) and 15% (n=33). Multivariable predictors of 1-year mortality included: age >70 (p=0.001, HR 5.8, 95% CI 2.1–16.0), adjunctive intra-operative procedures (e.g. brachiocephalic/visceral stents, concomitant arch de-branching procedures) (p=0.001, HR 4.5, 95% CI 1.9–10.8), peripheral arterial disease (PAD; p=0.006, HR 3.0, 95% CI 1.4–6.7), coronary artery disease (CAD; p=0.02, HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1–4.9), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; p=0.06, HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0–3.9). A diagnosis of hyperlipidemia was protective (p=0.006, HR 0.4, 95% CI 0.2–0.7). When patients are grouped into those with 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4+ of these risk factors, the predicted one year mortality was 1, 3, 10, 27 and 54%, respectively.
Conclusions
Factors are available in the pre-operative setting that are predictive of mortality within 1-year after TEVAR, and can guide clinical decision-making regarding the timing of repair. Patients with multiple risk factors such as age ≥70, CAD, COPD, and a need for an extensive procedure involving adjunctive therapies have a high predicted mortality within one year, and may be best served by waiting for a larger aneurysm size to justify the risk of intervention.