Sustainability Assessment Based on Integrating EKC with Decoupling: Empirical Evidence from China

Abstract

In September 2020, the Chinese government proposed a climate change commitment that aims to make carbon emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In this context, it is important to examine the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and decoupling analysis are commonly used assessment methods for regional sustainable development. Each method has a particular emphasis: the former focuses on long-term trends and the latter on short-term change. Integrating the EKC hypothesis with decoupling analysis is helpful to diagnose the relationship between economic growth and the carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry from the perspective of long-term trends and short-term changes. The results showed that the EKC passed the inflection point for both China’s entire manufacturing industry and manufacture of nonmetallic mineral product subsector (MNM), but not in the other four main subsectors from 1995 to 2017. Strong decoupling, weak decoupling, and expansive coupling were observed between CO2 emissions and the value added in China’s entire manufacturing industry, in which weak decoupling accounted for the largest proportion. The decoupling index showed a downward trend on the whole. The decoupling status of subsectors from 1995 to 2017 was mainly weak decoupling, but different subsectors also showed characteristics of differentiation. At present, integrating EKC with decoupling has only occurred across the entire manufacturing industry and MNM. This study will provide suggestions for carbon reductions in China and will enrich the assessment methods of sustainable development.

Research on the Decoupling Relationship between CO₂ Emissions and Economic Growth in Zhejiang Province

“…This study refers to the practice of Lv et al [32] and introduces the cubic term of the per capita GDP (PGDP). According to the significance and positive and negative value of each coefficient, we can determine its relationship with carbon emissions.…”

Decoupling Effect of County Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in China: Empirical Evidence from Jiangsu Province

“…Third, most studies either adopt the decoupling theory or choose the EKC hypothesis to analyze the dynamic relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth from the perspective of speed or quantity. Only a few studies adopted both of them [ 4 , 11 ]. In fact, they have their own advantages and should complement each other.…”

“…Throughout the relevant literature, the decoupling analysis and environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis are two useful analysis tools. The former describes the correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions from a short-term and real-time perspective [ 4 , 11 ], which is a speed decoupling analysis. The latter assumes that in the early stage of economic development, pollution emissions increase with the level of economic development, and, after crossing the turning point, pollution emissions decrease with the level of economic development [ 12 , 13 ].…”

“…The latter assumes that in the early stage of economic development, pollution emissions increase with the level of economic development, and, after crossing the turning point, pollution emissions decrease with the level of economic development [ 12 , 13 ]. It depicts the long-term relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, and cannot capture their interactions in specific years or stages [ 4 , 11 ], which is a quantitative decoupling analysis. The two methods have their own emphasis and complement each other.…”

Crop Production and Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Relationship Diagnosis and Decomposition Analysis

“…Based on the analysis framework of EKC proposed by Friedl and Getzner [19], Zhang et al [45], and Lv et al [46], considering the simulation accuracy of the CO 2 EKC model, this paper first describes the general functional form as a cubic polynomial and builds a cubic curve equation on the basis of two indicators: crop production (expressed as agricultural output value) and agricultural carbon emissions. In view of the target of carbon emission reduction in agriculture, the total values of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural output value are chosen instead of the per capita index.…”