Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems

Mirchi, Ali; Madani, Kaveh; Watkins, David; Ahmad, Sajjad

doi:10.1007/s11269-012-0024-2

Cited by 294 publications

(156 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The Zayandeh-Rud River basin has frequently faced water shortage during the past 60 years as a result of adopting policies that relaxed the biophysical limits (e.g., water availability) to socioeconomic growth (Madani and Mariño 2009;Mirchi et al 2012;Gohari et al 2013b). The unrestricted watershed development is expected to encounter a balancing process which is activated and catalyzed by climate change.…”

Section: Biophysical Limits To Watershed Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This distinction has made SD a popular framework for analyzing water resource problems (Winz et al 2009;Mirchi et al 2012) that naturally involve complex dynamics and uncertainty (Mirchi et al 2010;Hjorth and Madani 2014). The approach has been implemented to identify climate change impacts on water resources systems Li 2003, 2004;Langsdale et al 2007;Prodanovic and Simonovic 2010;Hassanzadeh et al 2012;Xiao-jun et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

Gohari

Mirchi

Madani

2017

Water Resour Manage

Self Cite

112

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The Zayandeh-Rud River basin, Iran, is projected to face spatiotemporally heterogeneous temperature increase and precipitation reduction that will decrease water supply by mid-century. With projected increase (0.70-1.03°C) in spring temperature and reduction (6-55%) in winter precipitation, the upper Zayandeh-Rud sub-basin, the main source of renewable water supply, will likely become warmer and drier. In the lower sub-basin, 1.1-1.5°C increase in temperature and 11-31% decrease in annual precipitation are likely. A system dynamics model was used to analyze adaptation strategies taking into account feedbacks between water resources development and biophysical and socioeconomic sub-systems. Results suggest that infrastructural improvements, rigorous water demand management (e.g., replacing high water demand crops such as rice, corn, and alfalfa), and ecosystem-based regulatory prioritization, complemented by supply augmentation can temporarily alleviate water stress in a basin that is essentially governed by the Limits to Growth archetype.

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Section: Biophysical Limits To Watershed Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

Gohari

Mirchi

Madani

2017

Water Resour Manage

Self Cite

112

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“…Several system dynamics models have been developed for water resources management (Mirchi et al 2012;Qaiser et al 2013). A system dynamics approach has been used successfully by several researchers on the Canadian Prairies (Belcher et al 2003(Belcher et al , 2004Simonovic and Li 2004;Chen and Wei 2014;Hassanzadeh et al 2014).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An economic assessment of local farm multi-purpose surface water retention systems in a Canadian Prairie setting

2017

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There is a need to explore more sustainable approaches to water management on the Canadian Prairies. Retention pond installation schemes designed to capture surface water may be a viable option that would reduce water stress during drought periods by providing water for irrigation. The retention systems would serve to capture excess spring runoff and extreme rainfall events, reducing flood potential downstream. Additionally, retention ponds may be used for biomass production and nutrient retention. The purpose of this research was to investigate the economic viability of adopting local farm surface water retention systems as a strategic water management strategy. A retention pond was analyzed using a dynamic simulation model to predict its storage capacity, installation and upkeep cost, and economic advantage to farmers when used for irrigation. While irrigation application increased crop revenue, the cost of irrigation and reservoir infrastructure and installation costs were too high for the farmer to experience a positive net revenue. Farmers who harvest cattails from retention systems for biomass and available carbon offset credits can gain $642.70/hectare of harvestable cattail/year. Cattail harvest also removes phosphorus and nitrogen, providing a monetized impact of $7014/hectare of harvestable cattail/year. The removal of phosphorus, nitrogen, carbon, and avoided flooding damages of the retention basin itself provide an additional $17,730-$18,470/hectare of retention system/year. The recommended use of retention systems is for avoided flood damages, nutrient retention, and biomass production. The revenue gained from these functions can support farmers wanting to invest in irrigation while providing economic and environmental benefits to the region.

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“…Therefore, for future research, the authors suggest to model the water supply and demand projections of Istanbul using the system dynamics approach. In this way, the model will be able to take into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use for sustainable urban water management by city-planners [39][40][41][42].…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

et al. 2015

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Abstract:The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul's water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2015, 7 11051 technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure.

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Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems

Cited by 294 publications

References 51 publications

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

An economic assessment of local farm multi-purpose surface water retention systems in a Canadian Prairie setting

A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

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