Systematic Historical Analogue Research for Decision-making (SHARD): Introducing a new methodology for using historical case studies to inform low-carbon transitions

Roberts, Cameron; Nemet, Gregory F.

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2022.102768

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…We can gain insight into future DACCS adoption by looking at similar technologies from the past. To do this, we apply the systematic historical analog research for decision-making (SHARD) method, in which a target innovation is matched with historical analogs according to sociotechnical characteristics from the sustainability transitions literature (see SI Appendix , Note S4 for background on SHARD and Materials and Methods and SI Appendix , section B for full details on our approach) ( 45 ). We identify a set of analogs that share strategic similarities with DACCS across six categories ( Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, methods using analogs have been critiqued for removing technologies from their historical context ( 56 ). While we cannot fully address this critique, the approach we develop aims to identify strategic similarities between analogs and innovations and uses a range of analogs, making it less sensitive to artifacts of a single technology ( 45 ). Further, the contexts in which analogs grew can point to important ways to support DACCS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We apply the SHARD method to identify historical analogs for DACCS ( 45 ) ( SI Appendix , Note S4 ). The SHARD method consists of three steps.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Edwards,

Thomas,

Nemet

et al. 2024

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO 2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO 2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Edwards,

Thomas,

Nemet

et al. 2024

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…An alternative way to inform technology growth in scenarios is to examine historical technological change, which by default aggregates the effects of various socio-economic, political, and other factors [7,[34][35][36][37][38][39]. A systematic approach for doing that is to use an empirically-benchmarked 'feasibility space' [40,41], which involves identifying historical 'reference cases' for technology change in climate pathways and comparing the outcomes and conditions of these reference cases to the projected outcomes and conditions in the pathways [40,42].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical diffusion of nuclear, wind and solar power in different national contexts: implications for climate mitigation pathways

Vinichenko,

Jewell,

Jacobsson

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Climate change mitigation requires rapid expansion of low-carbon electricity but there is a disagreement on whether available technologies such as renewables and nuclear power can be scaled up sufficiently fast. Here we analyze the diffusion of nuclear (from the 1960s), as well as wind and solar (from the 1980–90s) power. We show that all these technologies have been adopted in most large economies except major energy exporters, but solar and wind have diffused across countries faster and wider than nuclear. After the initial adoption, the maximum annual growth for nuclear power has been 2.6% of national electricity supply (IQR 1.3%–6%), for wind − 1.1% (0.6%–1.7%), and for solar − 0.8% (0.5%–1.3%). The fastest growth of nuclear power occurred in Western Europe in the 1980s, a response by industrialized democracies to the energy supply crises of the 1970s. The European Union (EU), currently experiencing a similar energy supply shock, is planning to expand wind and solar at similarly fast rates. This illustrates that national contexts can impact the speed of technology diffusion at least as much as technology characteristics like cost, granularity, and complexity. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mitigation pathways, renewables grow much faster than nuclear due to their lower projected costs, though empirical evidence does not show that the cost is the sole factor determining the speed of diffusion. We demonstrate that expanding low-carbon electricity in Asia in line with the 1.5 °C target requires growth of nuclear power even if renewables increase as fast as in the most ambitious EU’s plans. 2 °C-consistent pathways in Asia are compatible with replicating China’s nuclear power plans in the whole region, while simultaneously expanding renewables as fast as in the near-term projections for the EU. Our analysis demonstrates the usefulness of empirically-benchmarked feasibility spaces for future technology projections.

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“…We address these challenges by building on the tradition of using empirical evidence [15,16,[21][22][23][24][25][26][27] through a set of reference cases or historical technology analogies [28,29], where we contribute with three innovations. First, we analyse historical failure rates (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Feasible deployment trajectories of carbon capture and storage compared to the requirements of climate targets

Kazlou,

Cherp,

Jewell

2023

Preprint

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Carbon capture and storage (CCS) including its negative emission applications play a key role in climate change mitigation. Recent industry plans indicate an eight-fold increase in capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of rapidly upscaling CCS is debated due to past failures and long-term storage constraints. Here we re-focus this debate on the feasibility of CCS growth in the near-term by constructing plausible ranges of its deployment based on empirical evidence from CCS and other policy-driven technologies. We show that under the most optimistic assumptions of near-term industry plans and their failure rates, CCS can reach 0.37 Gt/year by 2030. While this growth would fall short of three-quarters of 1.5°C scenarios, it would keep CCS on-track for over half of 2°C scenarios. Beyond 2030, staying on-track for 2°C requires that CCS accelerates as fast as wind power did historically and expands despite the shrinking carbon market in a climate-constrained world.

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Systematic Historical Analogue Research for Decision-making (SHARD): Introducing a new methodology for using historical case studies to inform low-carbon transitions

Cited by 8 publications

References 59 publications

Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Historical diffusion of nuclear, wind and solar power in different national contexts: implications for climate mitigation pathways

Feasible deployment trajectories of carbon capture and storage compared to the requirements of climate targets

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