Systematically analysis of decompensated cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis to identify diagnostic and prognostic indexes

Abstract

Background Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a common complication in patients with cirrhosis. The diagnosis of SBP is still mostly based on ascites cultures and absolute ascites polymorphonuclear (PMN) cell count, which restricts the widely application in clinical settings. This study aimed to identify reliable and easy-to-use biomarkers for both diagnosis and prognosis of cirrhotic patients with SBP. Methods We conducted a retrospective study including 413 cirrhotic patients from March 2013 to July 2022 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University. Patients’ clinical characteristics and laboratory indices were collected and analyzed. Two machine learning methods (Xgboost and LASSO algorithms) and a logistic regression analysis were adopted to screen and validate the indices associated with the risk of SBP. A predictive model was constructed and validated using the estimated area under curve (AUC). The indices related to the survival of cirrhotic patients were also analyzed. Results A total of 413 cirrhotic patients were enrolled in the study, of whom 329 were decompensated and 84 were compensated. 52 patients complicated and patients with SBP had a poorer Child–Pugh score (P < 0.05). Patients with SBP had a greater proportion of malignancies than those without SBP(P < 0.05). The majority of laboratory test indicators differed significantly between patients with and without SBP (P < 0.05). Albumin, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and ferritin-to-neutrophil ratio (FNR) were found to be independently associated with SBP in decompensated cirrhotic patients using LASSO algorithms, and logistic regression analysis. The model established by the three indices showed a high predictive value with an AUC of 0.808. Furthermore, increased neutrophils, ALP, and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR) were associated with the shorter survival time of patients with decompensated cirrhosis, and the combination of these indices showed a greater predictive value for cirrhotic patients. Conclusions The present study identified FNR as a novel index in the diagnosis of SBP in decompensated patients with cirrhosis. A model based on neutrophils, ALP and CAR showed high performance in predicting the prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis.