2022
DOI: 10.1177/09567976211061321
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Taking a Disagreeing Perspective Improves the Accuracy of People’s Quantitative Estimates

Abstract: Many decisions rest on people’s ability to make estimates of unknown quantities. In these judgments, the aggregate estimate of a crowd of individuals is often more accurate than most individual estimates. Remarkably, similar principles apply when multiple estimates from the same person are aggregated, and a key challenge is to identify strategies that improve the accuracy of people’s aggregate estimates. Here, we present the following strategy: Combine people’s first estimate with their second estimate, made f… Show more

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Cited by 8 publications
(20 citation statements)
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“…Specifically, they first answer their own estimate and then create another estimate from the perspective of someone with whom they disagree (hereafter called “disagree-other”). Thus, we obtain four methods that exploit the wisdom of the inner crowd: (1) providing a timespan 14 ; (2) dialectical bootstrapping 15 ; (3) disagree-other 16 ; and our method (Strictly, Winkler, and Clemen 51 also suggested another intervention type).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 4 more Smart Citations
“…Specifically, they first answer their own estimate and then create another estimate from the perspective of someone with whom they disagree (hereafter called “disagree-other”). Thus, we obtain four methods that exploit the wisdom of the inner crowd: (1) providing a timespan 14 ; (2) dialectical bootstrapping 15 ; (3) disagree-other 16 ; and our method (Strictly, Winkler, and Clemen 51 also suggested another intervention type).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As mentioned in the Introduction, a new promising method 16 that exploits the wisdom of the inner crowd has recently been proposed. This method requires participants to produce two estimates for a single question.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 3 more Smart Citations