Techno-economic study for 50 MW wind farm in Pasni, coastal district of Balochistan-Pakistan using ARIMA models and RETScreen

Abstract

This study investigates the techno-economic assessment of predicted wind energy generation from 50 MW wind farm at Pasni, Distt of Gawadar, Baluchistan -Pakistan. Key purpose of the current work is to find wind power potential at low, medium and higher heights. To explore the best and power potential, four years wind speed data is forecasted using statistical model. ARIMA models present a better understanding to the change and estimate of the wind speed. Based on this forecasted wind speed 317 turbines of different manufacturers were examined at different heights (60m, 80m and 100m) from ground level including maximum possible rating up to 5 MW. The results show the best turbine selection at particular location with maximum possible capacity factor achievable through various numerical as well as simulation methods. Moreover this study further investigates the economic feasibility of 50 MW wind farm through numerical methods at the potential site using Minitab, Stats Graphics, and EViews. The results obtained from these software were validated by simulations through RETScreen Software. The results show that the most suitable hub height for wind turbines in Pasni-Pakistan is 100m and capacity factor found at this height is 20.19 % with annual wind energy production of 88 GWh/year.

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

“…If the means, variances and covariances of the series are independent of time, rather than the entire distribution, then the time series data is said to be stationary [70,71]. On the other hand, the non-stationarity in a series might originate due to various reasons.…”