Temporal and spatial patterns of vertebrate extinctions during the Anthropocene

Abstract

The human-induced annihilation of modern biodiversity is dragging the planet into a mass extinction that has already altered patterns of life globally. Among vertebrates, over 500 species have become extinct or possibly extinct in the last five centuries - an extinction rate that would have taken several millennia without human intervention. Vertebrate extinctions have often been quantified as cumulative counts that reveal sharp increases in losses over time. Here, we quantify global tetrapod extinctions since the 1400s using numbers of species losses across successive and independent time periods until present. Our results reveal that extinctions were low and fundamentally restricted to islands in pre-industrial times, experiencing a significant increase and spread over continental mainland following the onset of the industrial revolution. Recent amphibian extinctions alarmingly exceed the extinctions of all tetrapods, while extinctions of island birds account for a third of all extinctions. Finally, we quantified the relationship between human population growth (HPG, as a proxy for aggregate human effects on the environment) and extinctions between 1800-2000, to then predict that an estimated 838 tetrapod species will go extinct between 2030-2100 based on United Nations HPG projections. These findings further warn humanity about the need to sustainably control HPG and the destructive impacts of rapid environmental change on ecosystems worldwide.

Assessing Reptile Conservation Status under Global Climate Change

“…Global climate change is widely recognized as a significant driver of changes in wildlife species’ morphology, habitat use, distribution ranges, and conservation status [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 61 , 62 , 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 ]. Temperature and precipitation patterns are altered by climate change, leading to shifts in wildlife’s original natural environments and prompting their migration to areas with more favorable climatic conditions for survival [ 59 , 65 ].…”

“…Studying animals’ habitat use under climate change is crucial because it is closely linked to their distribution ranges [ 4 ]. Previous research has highlighted the impact of climate change on various animal groups, resulting in significant contraction of distribution ranges.…”

“…Environmental degradation caused by human activity is pushing the planet’s biodiversity toward a sixth mass extinction event [ 1 ]. In the last 500 years, over 500 species of terrestrial vertebrates have become extinct or are considered possibly extinct [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]. The extinction risk of species results from a combination of factors, including habitat loss, overexploitation, biological invasions, pollution, toxification, and climate disruption [ 1 , 2 , 3 ].…”

“…There is substantial evidence that the significant effects of anthropogenic climate change on distribution ranges and population extirpations are leading to biodiversity losses worldwide [ 18 , 19 , 20 ]. The primary impact of climate change on animals is the alteration of their range, resulting in the reduction or loss of suitable habitats, which is the most direct cause of species decline and potential extinction [ 4 , 6 , 7 , 21 ]. For example, based on the mean annual dispersal distance to favorable habitats under current conditions and future climate change scenarios, it is predicted that up to 41% of the Australian arid zone gecko ( Gehyra variegata ) population will be unable to colonize favorable microclimates by 2070 [ 22 ].…”