Temporal and spatial variability of extreme river flow quantiles in the Upper Vistula River basin, Poland

Rutkowska, Agnieszka; Willems, Patrick; Onyutha, Charles; Młocek, Wojciech

doi:10.1002/hyp.11122

Cited by 16 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…We refer the reader to other studies devoted to this phenomenon, e.g. Rutkowska et al (2017), Pociask-Karteczka (2006), Wrzesiński (2011) and a recent review article of Steirou et al (2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

2018

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The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small-and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions-low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly 'no trend' results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981-2016 rather than for 1956-2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

2018

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“…This criterion was used because the relative quantile change in extreme events above this threshold showed fairly constant anomalies (Tabari et al, ; Taye & Willems, ; Willems, ). The anomalies act as a filter to enhance the decadal variation, whose plots can provide a better recognition of the oscillation behavior of a long‐term series (Rutkowska et al, ; Willems, ). The result of QPM is sensitive to the length of the block period: the smoother anomaly curves for a larger block length (Tabari & Willems, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More frequent occurrence of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts in recent years has attracted more and more attention from governments, the public and academic communities worldwide because of their tremendous socio‐economic impacts (Haddeland et al, ; Patz, Campbell‐Lendrum, Holloway, & Foley, ; Runting et al, ; Smart et al, ; Y. Wang et al, ). Therefore, an increasing number of researches emphasized the importance to investigate the drivers of such events (Milly, Wetherald, Dunne, & Delworth, ; Rutkowska, Willems, Onyutha, & Młocek, ; Thibault & Brown, ; W. Zhang et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study reports on the analysis of the temporal variability of extreme water levels using a novel approach named quantile perturbation method (QPM). This method originally proposed by Ntegeka and Willems () has been successfully applied to study variability of hydroclimatic extremes in different regions of the world (Onyutha & Willems, ; Rutkowska et al, ; Tabari et al, ). The method offers an insightful temporal evaluation of oscillation patterns of extreme values and also can give the cycles of time series based on graphical plots (Taye & Willems, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Atmospheric and human‐induced impacts on temporal variability of water level extremes in the Taihu Basin, China

Wang

Tabari

et al. 2019

J Flood Risk Management

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Understanding the variation of water level extremes with their potential drivers can provide insights for flood risk management. In this study, temporal variability of water level extremes is investigated across the plain river network region of the Taihu Basin. The driving force analysis on water level extremes is mainly conducted for atmospheric (rainfall, climatic index, and tide) and anthropogenic forcing. The quantile perturbation method is employed to examine variability of extreme values and the Spearman correlation analysis to identify potential drivers of extreme water level variability. Considering water level extremes in all seasons, the 1990s have statistically significant positive anomalies, while the late 1960s to the 1970s and the 2000s have significant negative anomalies. The oscillation pattern of anomaly in summer has a higher variability than that in the other three seasons. Significant correlations are detected between the anomalies of water level extremes and rainfall (tide level) during summer and winter. Water level extremes in summer and winter have a strong connection to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation, respectively. Conversely, no consistent significant correlations between water level extremes and climatic indices are found in spring and autumn, which is mainly related to hydraulic structure construction and operation. K E Y W O R D Sdriving forces, quantile perturbation method, the Taihu Basin, variability, water level extremes

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“…In Poland studies on the river flow regime concentrate on the largest Central European river-the Vistula. Rutkowska et al [21] investigated the temporal and spatial variability in extreme quantile anomalies of seasonal and annual maximum river flows for 41 gauging stations on rivers in the Upper Vistula River basin. The anomalies showed a high variability on the right bank of the Upper Vistula River basin during the summer season with the highest values in catchments located in the western and south-western parts of the basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transformation of the Flow Regime of a Large Allochthonous River in Central Europe—An Example of the Vistula River in Poland

Wrzesiński

Sobkowiak

2020

Water

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Identification of river flow regime and its possible changes caused by natural factors or human activity is one of major issues in modern hydrology. In such studies different approaches and different indicators can be used. The aim of this study is to determine changes in flow regime of the largest river in Poland—the Vistula, using new, more objectified coefficients and indices, based on data recorded in 22 gauges on the Vistula mainstream and 38 gauges on its tributaries in the multi-year period 1971–2010. The paper consists of three main parts: in the first part, in order to recognize changes in the flow regime characteristics along the Vistula, data from gauges located on the river mainstream were analyzed with the help of the theory of entropy. In the second part gauging stations on the Vistula mainstream and its tributaries were grouped; values of the newly introduced pentadic Pardé’s coefficient of flow (discharge) (PPC) were taken as the grouping criterion. In the third part of the study a novel method of determining river regime characteristics was applied: through the recognition of the temporal structure of hydrological phenomena and their changes in the annual cycle sequences of hydrological periods (characteristic phases of the hydrological cycle) on the Vistula River mainstream and its tributaries were identified and their occurrence in the yearly cycle was discussed. Based on the detected changes of the 73-pentad Pardé’s coefficients of flow four main types of rivers were distinguished. Transformation of the flow regime was reflected in the identified different sequences of hydrological periods in the average annual cycle. It was found that while transformation of the Vistula River regime occurred along its whole course, the most frequent changes were detected in its upper, mountainous reaches, under the influence of the flow characteristics of its tributaries. This allowed the Vistula to be considered the allochthonous river. These findings are interesting not only from a theoretical point of view, but they also can be valuable to stakeholders in the field of the Vistula River basin water management and hydrological forecasting, including flood protection, which has recently become a matter of growing concern due to the observed effects of climate change and human impact.

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Temporal and spatial variability of extreme river flow quantiles in the Upper Vistula River basin, Poland

Cited by 16 publications

References 53 publications

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

Atmospheric and human‐induced impacts on temporal variability of water level extremes in the Taihu Basin, China

Transformation of the Flow Regime of a Large Allochthonous River in Central Europe—An Example of the Vistula River in Poland

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