Temporal trends in the incidence of childhood leukaemia and in radiation exposure of parents

Abstract

The author examines the trends in the average annual gonadal dose of ionising radiation on Britain, and the trends in childhood leukaemia rates, in relation to the hypothesis of induction of childhood leukaemia by parental germ-cell injury. The incidence rates of childhood leukaemia 1961-85 in South East England were obtained from the Thames Cancer Registry and the average annual background radiation doses in Britain were obtained from NRPB and UNSCEAR reports. Models were fitted to the annual incidence rates using the statistical software package GLIM. The incidence rates for the 0-4 age group peaked in the 1970s and a model fitted to the annual incidence rates included a statistically significant term in the square of the year of diagnosis. The quinquennial rates suggested that the peak was confined to the boys aged 0-4 years. No evidence of a trend in rates was observed in children aged 5-14 at diagnosis.