Temporal variation may have diverse impacts on range limits

Holt, Robert D.; Barfield, Michael; Peniston, James H.

doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0016

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 88 publications

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“…Temporal environmental variation may also reduce the productivity (R max ) of genotypes at a given point in a gradient, even where they match the phenotypic optimum, further reducing the gradient steepness at which adaptation fails (see [62]; see also Holt et al [63]), as may stochastic environmental variation [64]. Environmental effects on R max that are insurmountable given the genetic variation available (i.e.…”

Section: (Viii) Genetic Variation In Fitness In the Laboratory Does N...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental variation and biotic interactions limit adaptation at ecological margins: lessons from rainforestDrosophilaand European butterflies

O’Brien

Walter

Bridle

2022

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Models of local adaptation to spatially varying selection predict that maximum rates of evolution are determined by the interaction between increased adaptive potential owing to increased genetic variation, and the cost genetic variation brings by reducing population fitness. We discuss existing and new results from our laboratory assays and field transplants of rainforest Drosophila and UK butterflies along environmental gradients, which try to test these predictions in natural populations. Our data suggest that: (i) local adaptation along ecological gradients is not consistently observed in time and space, especially where biotic and abiotic interactions affect both gradient steepness and genetic variation in fitness; (ii) genetic variation in fitness observed in the laboratory is only sometimes visible to selection in the field, suggesting that demographic costs can remain high without increasing adaptive potential; and (iii) antagonistic interactions between species reduce local productivity, especially at ecological margins. Such antagonistic interactions steepen gradients and may increase the cost of adaptation by increasing its dimensionality. However, where biotic interactions do evolve, rapid range expansion can follow. Future research should test how the environmental sensitivity of genotypes determines their ecological exposure, and its effects on genetic variation in fitness, to predict the probability of evolutionary rescue at ecological margins. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.

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Section: (Viii) Genetic Variation In Fitness In the Laboratory Does N...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental variation and biotic interactions limit adaptation at ecological margins: lessons from rainforestDrosophilaand European butterflies

O’Brien

Walter

Bridle

2022

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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show abstract

“…However, this limit may not be realized owing to historical factors, such as temporal changes in the environment, stochastic variation in conditions or spatial barriers that take time to overcome. Three comparative studies address the impact of adaptive constraints on range limits and range sizes [ 9 , 10 , 19 ], while Holt and co-authors [ 21 ] explore the impacts of temporal variation in environmental conditions, which can sometimes lead to wider range limits than expected in stable environments. Niche limits may be exceeded locally, within the species’ range, as well as at its geographical limits [ 27 ].…”

Section: Single Species Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction to the theme issue ‘Species' ranges in the face of changing environments’

Rafajlović

Alexander

Butlin

et al. 2022

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Understanding where, when and how species’ ranges will be modified is both a fundamental problem and essential to predicting how spatio-temporal environmental changes in abiotic and biotic factors impact biodiversity. Notably, different species may respond disparately to similar environmental changes: some species may overcome an environmental change only with difficulty or not at all, while other species may readily overcome the same change. Ranges may contract, expand or move. The drivers and consequences of this variability in species' responses remain puzzling. Importantly, changes in a species’ range creates feedbacks to the environmental conditions, populations and communities in its previous and current range, rendering population genetic, population dynamic and community processes inextricably linked. Understanding these links is critical in guiding biodiversity management and conservation efforts. This theme issue presents current thinking about the factors and mechanisms that limit and/or modify species' ranges. It also outlines different approaches to detect changes in species’ distributions, and illustrates cases of range modifications in several taxa. Overall, this theme issue highlights the urgency of understanding species' ranges but shows that we are only just beginning to disentangle the processes involved. One way forward is to unite ecology with evolutionary biology and empirical with modelling approaches. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.

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“…Because temporal variation can influence key aspects of population demography and evolution, there is reason to expect that it influences species range dynamics, as well [43]. However, most range limit models to date assume temporally constant environments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing temporal variance leads to stable species range limits

2022

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What prevents populations of a species from adapting to the novel environments outside the species' geographic distribution? Previous models highlighted how gene flow across spatial environmental gradients determines species expansion versus extinction and the location of species range limits. However, space is only one of two axes of environmental variation—environments also vary in time, and we know temporal environmental variation has important consequences for population demography and evolution. We used analytical and individual-based evolutionary models to explore how temporal variation in environmental conditions influences the spread of populations across a spatial environmental gradient. We find that temporal variation greatly alters our predictions for range dynamics compared to temporally static environments. When temporal variance is equal across the landscape, the fate of species (expansion versus extinction) is determined by the interaction between the degree of temporal autocorrelation in environmental fluctuations and the steepness of the spatial environmental gradient. When the magnitude of temporal variance changes across the landscape, stable range limits form where this variance increases maladaptation sufficiently to prevent local persistence. These results illustrate the pivotal influence of temporal variation on the likelihood of populations colonizing novel habitats and the location of species range limits.

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Temporal variation may have diverse impacts on range limits

Cited by 11 publications

References 88 publications

Environmental variation and biotic interactions limit adaptation at ecological margins: lessons from rainforestDrosophilaand European butterflies

Environmental variation and biotic interactions limit adaptation at ecological margins: lessons from rainforestDrosophilaand European butterflies

Introduction to the theme issue ‘Species' ranges in the face of changing environments’

Increasing temporal variance leads to stable species range limits

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