Terrorism Risk Forecasting by Ideology

Onat, Ismail; Gül, Zakir

doi:10.1007/s10610-017-9368-8

Cited by 22 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…As well as these factors, the high concentration of individuals also makes these areas an attractive target due to the number of potential casualties and fatalities. These findings are consistent with Onat and Gul's (2018) findings and with Webb and Cutter's (2009) argument that the spatial strategies of terrorism have shifted towards places of everyday activity. This seems to be the case with more recent attacks inspired by Daesh, who have targeted highly populous public spaces.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

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Risk Factors for Violent Dissident Republican Incidents in Belfast: A Comparison of Bombings and Bomb Hoaxes

2019

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Objectives To identify risk factors for bombings and bomb hoaxes committed by dissident Republicans in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Methods Risk terrain modelling (RTM) was applied to each type of incident to identify significant risk layers. Results Previous protests and riots [relative risk value (RRV) of 14.07; spatial influence (SI) of 100 m], punishment attacks (RRV 6.56; SI 300 m) and areas dense with pubs and bars (RRV 4.98; SI 200 m) were identified as risk factors for bombings. Punishment attacks (RRV 10.77; SI 100 m), police stations (RRV 8.76; SI of 200 m) and places dense with shops (RRV 6.94; SI 400 m) were identified as risk factors for bomb hoaxes. Descriptive statistics regarding predictive accuracy concluded that half of incidents for both types occurred in high or very high risk cells in a 3-year post-study period. Conclusions RTM could be a useful tool in guiding targeted responses to the dissident Republican threat in Belfast. The results suggest that there is some assessment of risk by the offenders, and that they are selecting targets rationally. Due to the differences in risk factors for the two types of events it can be proposed that there may be differences between targets relevant to ideology and realistic targets with increased chance of success.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…This research consistently demonstrates that RTM can be an important crime prevention tool . However, its application to terrorist attacks has been extremely limited, with only two published studies available (according to the authors' knowledge) (Onat 2016;Onat and Gul 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Factors for Violent Dissident Republican Incidents in Belfast: A Comparison of Bombings and Bomb Hoaxes

2019

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“…The relative simplicity and user-friendliness of the technique and its related software (discussed later) provide an opportunity for practitioners to readily utilize the approach with minimal resources as well. Prior studies have demonstrated the applicability of RTM to assess a variety of criminal activities, like residential burglary (Dugato et al, 2018; Moreto et al, 2014), organized crime homicide (Dugato et al, 2017), violent crime (Caplan et al, 2013a), maritime piracy (Caplan, Moreto, & Kennedy, 2011), and terrorism (Onat & Gul, 2018). RTM, however, has not been used within the context of environmental crime.…”

Section: Risk Terrain Modeling (Rtm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying Crime Pattern Theory and Risk Terrain Modeling to Examine Environmental Crime in Cambodia

Cowan

Moreto

Burton

et al. 2020

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

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The spatial-temporal analysis of crime has significantly evolved. One innovative technique recently developed is risk terrain modeling (RTM). RTM, however, has yet to be used for environmental crime. This research applies RTM and draws from crime pattern theory to examine illegal activities in two protected areas in Cambodia. Findings suggest that pathways, edges, areas with suitable targets, conservation posts, landcover, and prior incidents are related to fauna- and flora-related illegal activities, though this relationship varies by season, units of analysis, and study area (i.e., patrol-based compared with official designation). Implications for theory and policy are outlined.

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“…To anticipate target selection, it is necessary to evaluate their attractiveness and vulnerability through the eyes of a terrorist. In this way, the ideological backgrounds of terrorists shape their decisions about which symbolic targets to select (Drake, 1998; Onat & Gul, 2018). Santifort, Sandler, and Brandt (2012) established that domestic and international terrorist target selection and weapon choices have become less diverse over time with terrorists more commonly relying on bombings to target small parties (e.g., market squares, public transit, and shopping malls).…”

Section: Terrorism As Situated Criminal Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Situated Contexts of American Terrorism: A Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations

Gruenewald

Drawve²,

Smith

2019

Criminal Justice and Behavior

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This study examines how combinations of situational factors are associated with patterns of terrorist success and failure. We apply Sacco and Kennedy’s criminal event perspective and Clarke and Newman’s situational crime prevention approach to the study of terrorist opportunity structures. Using data from the American Terrorism Study (ATS), we employ conjunctive analysis to investigate how opportunities for terrorist attacks and prevention are situationally positioned. We ask, “What combinations of terrorists’ ideological and situational factors are associated with terrorist outcomes in the United States?” While our findings generally show that the simplest forms of terrorism, including combinations of lone actors using unsophisticated weapons against nonhuman targets after little preparation, are associated with successful outcomes, there is heterogeneity in situated opportunities for preparing for and committing terrorism across terrorism movements. Our findings add insights into terrorism prevention strategies and help build a foundation for future comparative research on terrorism outcomes.

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Terrorism Risk Forecasting by Ideology

Cited by 22 publications

References 37 publications

Risk Factors for Violent Dissident Republican Incidents in Belfast: A Comparison of Bombings and Bomb Hoaxes

Risk Factors for Violent Dissident Republican Incidents in Belfast: A Comparison of Bombings and Bomb Hoaxes

Applying Crime Pattern Theory and Risk Terrain Modeling to Examine Environmental Crime in Cambodia

The Situated Contexts of American Terrorism: A Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations

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