Testing Scenarios to Achieve Workplace Sustainability Goals Using Backcasting and Agent-Based Modeling

Abstract

Pro-environmental behaviors have been analyzed in the home, with little attention to other important contexts of everyday life, such as the workplace. The research reported here explored three categories of pro-environmental behavior (consumption of materials and energy, waste generation, and work-related commuting) in a public large-scale organization in Spain, with the aim of identifying the most effective policy options for a sustainable organization. Agent-based modeling was used to design a virtual simulation of the organization. Psychologically informed profiles of employees were defined using data gathered through a questionnaire, measuring knowledge, motivations, and ability. Future scenarios were developed using a participatory backcasting scenario development methodology, and policy tracks were derived. Dynamic simulations indicated that, to be effective, organizational policy should strengthen worker participation and autonomy, be sustained over time, and should combine different measures of medium intensity for behavior change, instead of isolated policies of high intensity.

Agent-based modeling and simulation in the research of environmental sustainability. A bibliography

“…Assessment tools [80], [97] City logistics [18] Decision support [16], [22], [24], [31], [35], [36], [40], [41], [50], [67], [68], [74], [ 77], [86], [100] Optimization [56], [57], [99] Planning [17], [21], [73], [88] Policy making [19], [28], [39], [46], [53], [64], [65], [72], [78], [90], [91], [92], [102] Prediction [27] System understanding [20], [23], [25], [26], [29], [30], [32], [33], [37], [38], [42]…”

“…Agriculture [26], [28], [33], [34], [35], [54], [58], [60], [61], [78], [83], [84] , [87], [98] Buildings [70], [96] Climate [41] Corporate behavior [30], [75] Common pool resources (CPR) [29], [42], [52], [89] Ecosystems [49], [55] Energy [20], [24], [51], [59], [63], [77], [80], [81], [86], [ [16], [39], [82] Transportation [18], [21], [32], [43], [45], [48], [50], [62], [64], [74], [76], [85] ,…”

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Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale

“…The challenge of modelling ontological change in the study of transformations remains. One participatory approach is offered by García-Mira et al (2017). They use backcasting workshops (Quist and Vergragt, 2006) to develop scenarios of transitions to lower-carbon workplaces, which they then explore with an agent-based model that is empirically calibrated using questionnaire data.…”

“…Participatory approaches provide a limited, but consensual environment, in which a community of people can explore ways to achieve societal transformations. The added value of modelling in such contexts, as García-Mira et al (2017) and others have shown, is in highlighting gaps in knowledge or reasoning. Holtz et al (2015) note that models co-constructed with stakeholders are useful when discussing forecasts and scenarios.…”