The 2015-19 multi year drought in the Eastern Cape, South Africa: it's evolution and impacts on agriculture

Archer, Emma; Toit, Justin du; Engelbrecht, Christien J.; Hoffman, Margaret; Landman, Willem A.; Malherbe, Johan; Stern, Maryke

doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2021.104630

Cited by 27 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Drought occurrences have been reported worldwide with a visible upsurge over the recent decades, resulting from the current human-induced climate change [2,[14][15][16]. To mention a few, drought has impacted many countries in America [17,18], Asia [19][20][21] Europe [22,23], and Africa [24][25][26][27]. In addition, Africa and southern Europe experienced an upsurge in drought events, generally linked to the precipitation deficit, resulting in the decadal variations in the Pacific and Indian oceans [28][29][30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Uwimbabazi

Jing²,

Iyakaremye

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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Drought is one of the most complex natural phenomena affecting the life and livelihood of people, especially in the current time of human-induced climate change. This research employs ground-based observations to assess the recent spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought events over Rwanda. The drought is examined based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at seasonal and annual time scales from 1981 to 2020. The Man–Kendal test was used to evaluate the trends in rainfall, temperature, and SPEI values at the annual scale and during the March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND) seasons. The analysis revealed nonsignificant trends in annual (8.4 mm/decade), MAM (−3.4 mm/decade), and OND (4.5 mm/decade) rainfall, while an apparent significant increasing trend in surface air temperature was obtained during the MAM (0.19 °C/decade), OND (0.2 °C/decade), and annual (0.23 °C/decade) time slices. Overall, the SPEI characteristics indicated that the country is more prone to moderate drought events than severe and extreme drought events during MAM and OND seasons. However, the intensity, duration, and frequency differ spatially among seasons. The findings of this study inform policy and decision-makers on the past experienced drought behavior, which can serve as a baseline for future drought mitigation and adaptation plans.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Uwimbabazi

Jing²,

Iyakaremye

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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“…Climate change in South Africa has been linked as the cause/contributing factor to the 2015-2022 El-Niño related drought, which in turn caused the 2018 water delivery problems in the City of Cape Town (Archer et al, 2022). The impacts have extended into the Eastern Cape Province, where agriculture, as one of the primary sources of population income/economic activity, has been impacted (Archer et al, 2022). In addition, the 2015-2022 El-Niño related drought has been causing significant problems in providing safe drinking water to the population (Iheanetu and Tandlich, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyses of Trends in the Fire Losses and the Fire-Brigade Call-Outs in South Africa Between 2004 and 2017

MADONDO¹,

Mutingwende²,

SHWABABA³

et al. 2022

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The current study aimed at performing correlation analyses to gain a more detailed systems understanding of the temporal trends in financial losses from fires (disaster impacts) and the fire brigade call-outs (disaster response) in South Africa from the 2004 to 2017 period. The analysis is performed using data on the fire disaster impacts at the national level and the local level (Makana Local Municipality). The data on disaster impacts was extracted from databases and reports published by the Fire Protection Association of Southern Africa and Statistics South Africa. The total number of fire brigade call-outs/fires for the entire territory of South Africa ranged from 26574 in 2010 to 49567 in 2017. There was a direct correlation between the total number of fires and the losses from fires in residential settings in South Africa with time for the studied period. The losses from fire disasters in residential settings accounted for between 21.84 % and 74.06 % of all financial losses in South Africa between 2004 and 2017. On the other hand, call-outs to fire brigades with a residential cause or related to rubbish/bush/grass accounted for an average of 81.7 ± 2.7 % between 2004 and 2007, while it reached 88.5 ± 4.9 % in Makana Local Municipality. This indicates that fires in residential settings or related to rubbish or plant-based fuel account for a significant majority of the time fire brigades spent fighting fires in South Africa between 2004 and 2017. Fuel and waste management, and increasing fire human resilience at the household level, will play a significant role in the fire disaster risk management in South Africa. Vegetation cover and management will play a key role in the fire DRM in South Africa and local municipalities such as Makana.

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“…Open sites are hotter ( Lechmere-Oertel et al, 2008 ) and drier ( Adie & Yeaton, 2013 ) than below plant canopies, yet P. afra seedlings appear capable of germinating in these sites in degraded and restored habitats, even during a prolonged and severe drought ( Archer et al, 2022 ). This is likely enabled by multiple adaptations.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All surveys were conducted in July 2021, following a severe multi-year regional drought ( Archer et al, 2022 ), and 12–13 years after the initial P. afra reintroduction. The full extent of each TWP (50 × 50 m) was surveyed and at each sampling plot, P. afra cover was visually estimated ( Table 1 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regeneration dynamics of Portulacaria afra in restored succulent thicket of South Africa

Galuszynski

2023

PeerJ

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Introduction Over-grazing by livestock has resulted in the widespread degradation of South Africa’s succulent thicket ecosystems. This is characterised by a significant reduction in the cover of the dominant succulent shrub, Portulacaria afra. Because this species is unable to regenerate naturally in degraded habitat, active reintroduction is required to restore ecosystem function. However, reintroduction success is relatively low, and the recruitment barriers for this species are poorly understood. Methods By conducting pairwise plot surveys in actively restored and adjacent degraded succulent thicket habitats, the extent of P. afra seedling abundance in these contrasting ecosystem conditions is quantified. Results Seedling abundance was significantly greater in restored ecosystems (W = 23, p = 0.03225). Additionally, seedlings found in restored habitats were strongly associated with open habitat, whereas seedlings in degraded ecosystems were more restricted to nurse sites (X2 = 122.84, df = 2, p-value < 2.2e–16). A weak (R2 = 0,237), but significant (p = 0, 0295) correlation between P. afra cover and seedling abundance was recorded. Conclusion Active restoration of succulent thicket habitat through P. afra reintroduction appears to overcome recruitment barriers. This may suggest that, despite the poor survival of introduced individuals, natural recruitment could contribute to the regeneration of restored succulent thicket ecosystems.

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The 2015-19 multi year drought in the Eastern Cape, South Africa: it's evolution and impacts on agriculture

Cited by 27 publications

References 15 publications

Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Analyses of Trends in the Fire Losses and the Fire-Brigade Call-Outs in South Africa Between 2004 and 2017

Regeneration dynamics of Portulacaria afra in restored succulent thicket of South Africa

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