The Analysis Method of Future Flooding Discharge considering Climate and Land-use Change using Dyna-CLUE

Abstract

In this research, the analysis method of future flooding discharge considering climate change and land-use change is proposed. In order to reduce uncertainty of climate change data, RCP 8.5 climate change scenario data is compared with long-term observed rainfall data in case study area and calibrated by regional parameters which can reflect regional weather characteristics and is required parameters for daily weather generation for future climate change data. Using calibrated RCP 8.5 data, the probability rainfall of 1 day and 5 days rainfall duration is calculated by 3 different time zone(Future 1 : 2011~2040, Future 2 : 2041~2070, Future 3 : 2071~2100). The algorithm of sub-module in Dyna-CLUE model is used to calculate the future land-use change by 3 different landuse scenarios and 3 different time zone. The S-RAT which is distributed hydrology model is used to simulate the future discharge by different time zone, 1 and 5 days rainfall duration and land-use change scenarios. As a result, the peak discharge is increased as far future and more urbanized. However, climate change is more effect to increase of peak discharge than the land-use change. Although to simulate future data such as climate and land-use change has a lot of uncertainty, those kinds of research must be required to reduce future natural disaster damage. It is expected that the analysis method in this research would be contribute to more correctly quantify the future flooding risk.