The Approach to Probabilistic Prediction of Pipelines Safety for Quantitative Rationale Preventive Measures of Control during Design and Operation

Abstract

The approach to probabilistic prediction of pipelines safety is proposed. The probability to lose "acceptable safety" may be predicted by modeling. The approach allows to estimate quantitative levels of risks, reveal "bottlenecks" and define rational recommendations to system preventive measures. The possibilities for revealing new latent effects for a given period "in future" and for quantitative rationale preventive measures of control during design and operation are demonstrated by examples.