The Association Between Social Determinants of Health and Population Health Outcomes: Ecological Analysis (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND With the increased availability of data, a growing number of studies have been conducted to address the impact of social determinants of health (SDOH) factors on population health outcomes. However, such an impact is either examined at the county level or the state level in the United States. The results of analysis at lower administrative levels would be useful for local policy makers to make informed health policy decisions. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the ecological association between SDOH factors and population health outcomes at the census tract level and the city level. The findings of this study can be applied to support local policy makers in efforts to improve population health, enhance the quality of care, and reduce health inequity. METHODS This ecological analysis was conducted based on 29,126 census tracts in 499 cities across all 50 states in the United States. These cities were grouped into 5 categories based on their population density and political affiliation. Feature selection was applied to reduce the number of SDOH variables from 148 to 9. A linear mixed-effects model was then applied to account for the fixed effect and random effects of SDOH variables at both the census tract level and the city level. RESULTS The finding reveals that all 9 selected SDOH variables had a statistically significant impact on population health outcomes for ≥2 city groups classified by population density and political affiliation; however, the magnitude of the impact varied among the different groups. The results also show that 4 SDOH risk factors, namely, asthma, kidney disease, smoking, and food stamps, significantly affect population health outcomes in all groups (<i>P</i><.01 or <i>P</i><.001). The group differences in health outcomes for the 4 factors were further assessed using a predictive margin analysis. CONCLUSIONS The analysis reveals that population density and political affiliation are effective delineations for separating how the SDOH affects health outcomes. In addition, different SDOH risk factors have varied effects on health outcomes among different city groups but similar effects within city groups. Our study has 2 policy implications. First, cities in different groups should prioritize different resources for SDOH risk mitigation to maximize health outcomes. Second, cities in the same group can share knowledge and enable more effective SDOH-enabled policy transfers for population health.