The ASTRA model for strategic assessment of transport policies

Fiorello, Davide; Fermi, Francesca; Bielanska, Dorota

doi:10.1002/sdr.452

Cited by 49 publications

(24 citation statements)

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“…Shepherd [29] recently proposed a comprehensive review of SD models applied to transportation within the last twenty years. However, the literature applying SD to freight transportation focuses, respectively, on a single issue of sustainability, such as carbon emission [31][32][33], land use [34], pavement condition [7,35], traffic safety [36], and congestion [37,38], with little discussion on the integrated effects of the above-mentioned issues, namely, freight sustainability. Moreover, most existing literature does not consider the problem of overloaded trucking, except the research by Hang and Li [7], but the objective of this research is to investigate the impacts of overloaded trucking on transport and pavement maintenance costs, not on freight sustainability.…”

Section: Sd and Applications To Freight Transportationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This module aims to assess the number of scrap vehicles and new vehicles each year, serving for the PEM for calculating the vehicles' purchasing cost. The approach adopted in this module is the classic scrap-and-sales model [33]. Specifically, this module first estimates the modal vehicle stock needed to fulfill transport demands according to the vehicle utilization rate and the modal traffic volume that is transformed from the modal freight volume, which, then, compares it with the remaining vehicle stock to obtain the number of new vehicles of a mode.…”

Section: The Fleet Evolution Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The approach supporting the development of this module is the random utility theory, which estimates the share of a mode within the current year of simulation based on the transport utility of the mode of the previous year. The model most commonly used for calculating modal shares is the logit model [45], which is in the form of…”

Section: The Modal Split Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

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Eliminating Overload Trucking via a Modal Shift to Achieve Intercity Freight Sustainability: A System Dynamics Approach

Liu

Gong

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:The Chinese government has long been preoccupied with solving the problem of overloaded trucking in intercity freight systems (IFSs). The enforcement of prohibiting overloaded trucking, which enhances environmental and social performance of sustainability, has not progressed well, as it raises transport costs and lowers economic performance, and cannot improve the overall performance of sustainability. It is, thus, necessary to find a way to eliminate overloaded trucking without undermining the overall performance of sustainability. A modal shift is a potential way to achieve freight sustainability, by encouraging greater use of more efficient transport modes. This paper develops a system dynamics model to perform a long-term evaluation of alternative modal shift policies with trucks meeting the statutory limit, and then identified effective policies, whereby the increasing sustainability of IFSs could be achieved. The proposed model was applied to a specific case in China. The results show that the effective modal shift policy is to construct a Class I railway to shift freight away from highways. A discussion is then proposed, based on an analysis of different parameter setting scenarios regarding more general situations.

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Section: Sd and Applications To Freight Transportationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Fleet Evolution Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

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Eliminating Overload Trucking via a Modal Shift to Achieve Intercity Freight Sustainability: A System Dynamics Approach

Liu

Gong

2017

Sustainability

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“…In exploring urban car dependency, Bachels et al (1999) used SD modelling to identify the positive feedback mechanisms related to policy on transport and land use planning. Another policy application arises from Fiorello et al (2010) who simulated energy scarcity, high oil prices, technological investments and specific transport policies across the European Union and presented a range of alternative scenarios considering linkages between transport demand, the economy, the vehicle fleet and the natural environment.…”

Section: Applications Of System Dynamics Modelling To Transportmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring stability and change in transport systems: combining Delphi and system dynamics approaches

Rees¹,

Stephenson

Hopkins

et al. 2016

Transportation

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Transport is a vast and complex socio-technical system, and despite a clear need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels due to undesirable environmental impacts, it is largely locked into business-as-usual. Systems approaches are a useful way to help make sense of multiple competing influences which may be simultaneously driving change and supporting the status quo. This paper applies qualitative system dynamics modelling to help interpret the results of a Delphi study into global transport transitions, involving 22 international experts in various aspects of transport. The main contribution of the paper is its exploration of the use of system dynamics (SD) modelling to interpret the Delphi findings. SD modelling was used to reveal and elucidate the causal arguments put forward by the expert panel about the factors driving business-as-usual, the factors creating barriers to more sustainable transport systems, and the drivers of change. The SD model is used to explore and expose the key causal patterns at play, and how these interact to both support and hinder change. The resulting model shows the complex, interdependent dynamics involved in supporting the status quo. Even at the relatively high level of analysis reported here, the model is useful in revealing interdependencies between parts of the system, where change in one part may well have knock-on effects elsewhere in the system. In particular the model reveals the strong reinforcing loops that act to minimise the impact of change drivers and thus retain the dominance of automobility. The result is a system that is highly dependent on the continued existence of key reinforcements such as policies that subsidise fossil fuels. From a methodological perspective, the outcomes of the Delphi study provided a rich source of qualitative material which was highly suitable for developing a system dynamics model.

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“…Han and Hayashi (2008) established an SD model of an inter-city passenger transportation system in China and then designed CO2 mitigation policies by sensitivity analysis. There is additional research that treats transportation as a sub-system of a socio-economic system, establishing SD models that reflect interrelationships among transportation, population, employment and land use and evaluating the effects of alternative policies (Fiorello, Martino & Rinaldi, 2002;Haghani, Lee & Byun, 2003;Pfaffenbichler, Emberger & Shepherd, 2010;Fiorello, Fermi & Bielanska, 2010;Pfaffenbichler, 2011;Dou, Li, Li & Gou, 2014). However, the above research does not cover the issue of overloaded trucking, which has a significant influence on the distribution of interests among stakeholders within a transportation system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating sustainability of truck weight regulations: A system dynamics view

Liu

2015

JIEM

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Abstract:Purpose: Targeting the problem of overloaded trucking regarding the Highway Transportation of iron ore from Caofeidian to Tangshan (HTCT), this paper aims to assess the long-term effects of alternative Truck Weight Regulation (TWR) policies on the sustainability of the HTCT.Design/methodology/approach: This paper develops a model for policy evaluation using System Dynamics (SD). The model, comprising six interrelated modules, is capable of simulating the effects of TWR policies on trucking issues, such as freight flow, truck traffic flow, pavement performance, highway transport capacity and trucking time. The model further sheds light on the Cumulative Economic Cost (CEC), including the transport cost and time cost of freight owners, and the Cumulative Social Cost (CSC), including the pavement maintenance cost, greenhouse gas emission cost, atmospheric pollutants emission cost and traffic accidents cost, so the effects of TWR policies on the sustainability of the HTCT could be evaluated. expected by the local government. To be specific, (1) if CSC is considered to be much less important than CEC, the local government should continue implementing TTP with the maximum overload ratio; (2) if CSC is considered to be much more important than CEC, then TRP is recommended; and (3) if CSC is considered to be slightly more important than CEC, TMP with an overload ratio of 80% is best. Practical implications:The conclusions of this paper may help the local government design appropriate TWR policies to achieve the sustainability of the HTCT.Originality/value: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort to evaluate TWR policies on the sustainability of the highway freight system based on SD.

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The ASTRA model for strategic assessment of transport policies

Cited by 49 publications

References 1 publication

Eliminating Overload Trucking via a Modal Shift to Achieve Intercity Freight Sustainability: A System Dynamics Approach

Eliminating Overload Trucking via a Modal Shift to Achieve Intercity Freight Sustainability: A System Dynamics Approach

Exploring stability and change in transport systems: combining Delphi and system dynamics approaches

Evaluating sustainability of truck weight regulations: A system dynamics view

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