The Bioclimate Present and Future in the State of São Paulo/Brazil: Space-Time Analysis of Human Thermal Comfort

Gobo, João Paulo Assis; Wollmann, Cássio Arthur; Celuppi, Maria Cristina; Galvani, Emerson; Faria, Marlon Resende; Mendes, David; Oliveira‐Júnior, José Francisco de; Malheiros, Tatiana dos Santos; Riffel, Eduardo Samuel; Gonçalves, Fábio Luiz Teixeira

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2021.103611

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 94 publications

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“…They have higher temperatures at Campo Limpo, Penha, Santana, Itaim Paulista, and Itaquera weather stations and lower temperatures at the Capela do Socorro, Marsilac, Parelheiros, M'Boi Mirim, and Lapa weather stations. It is clear, then, that the modifications imposed by the city's shape on the local climate system affect the city's inhabitants and expose them to the consequences of urban heat islands and thermal discomfort [4,17].…”

Section: Correlation In Between Land Surface Temperature and Air Temp...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cities are the most evident form of transformation of the natural landscape. The change in the elements of the climate has great ecological repercussions as it immediately affects the inhabitants through thermal discomfort and the concentration of pollutants [1][2][3][4][5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interest in urban climate studies has increased not only because most of the Brazilian and world populations live in cities but also because of the degradation process of these environments and its effects on the quality of life of city dwellers [16]. The changes imposed on the components of the local climate system by the pattern of the country's cities expose the population to the implications (thermal stress, compromised air quality, increased energy consumption, and the redefinition of urban planning) of urban heat islands (ICUs), which can be accentuated by global climate change [4,17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison between Air Temperature and Land Surface Temperature for the City of São Paulo, Brazil

et al. 2022

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This study aims to identify the relationship between changes in temperature regarding urbanization processes and seasonality in the city of São Paulo, located in the Tropic of Capricorn. The land surface temperature (LST) results were compared to official weather stations measurements, identifying in the spring–summer period 65.5% to 86.2% accuracy, while in the autumn–winter period, the results ranged from 58.6% to 93.1% accuracy, when considering the standard deviation and the temperature probe error. The mean MAE and mean RMSE range from 1.2 to 1.9 °C, with 83.0% of the values being ≤2.7 °C, and the coefficient of determination values are R = 0.81 in spring–summer and R = 0.82 in autumn–winter. Great thermal amplitude was estimated in the spring–summer season, with a difference in LST of the built-up space and rural area ranging from 5.8 and 11.5 °C, while in the autumn–winter season, the LST is more distributed through the city, with differences ranging from 4.4 to 8.5 °C. In addition, the current study suggests remote sensing as a reliable, cheap, and practical methodology to assist climate in order to support public policies and decision-making actions regarding environmental and urban planning.

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Section: Correlation In Between Land Surface Temperature and Air Temp...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison between Air Temperature and Land Surface Temperature for the City of São Paulo, Brazil

et al. 2022

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“…Studies show that with these projections, mortality should increase even more in different regions of the world, as well as in Brazil, with capitals such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Manaus, Recife, Porto Alegre and Brasília already having a high occurrence of heat waves, indicating a tendency to worsen in the coming years (Lopes; Floravanti, 2017). Corroborating these indications, recently Gobo et al (2022), in a spatialization of thermal comfort indices for the state of São Paulo, found a signi cant increase in heat discomfort for the near future (2050-2080) and for the distant future (2070-2100). In comparison with the IPCC AR5 (2013), which reported that it was "extremely likely" that human in uence was the preponderant cause of the warming observed since the mid-20th century", the latest IPCC report (IPCC AR6, 2021) states that it is unequivocal that human action, through the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) originated mainly from the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation and, especially in Brazil, by changes in land use and cover (deforestation), is heating the climate system, causing widespread, rapid and irreversible changes (IPCC AR6, 2021).…”

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 80%

Urban expansion and climate change in the Federal District of Brazil

Werneck,

Romero,

Celuppi

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Brazil has made a voluntary commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as part of the National Policy on Climate Change, but adaptation and mitigation measures for urban areas to promote climate resilience are still lacking. In this context, this article aims to explore the urban thermal environment of Brasília, Brazil. The city was inaugurated in 1960 and its Plano Piloto is a UNESCO World Heritage Site designed by Lucio Costa based on the principles of the modernist movement. In order to evaluate the intra-urban distribution of surface temperature and vegetation, satellite images and remote sensing techniques were used to generate thematic maps. From this information, an exploratory analysis of spatial data was performed to identify clusters where the surface temperature has positive, negative or null autocorrelation. The results of the Moran indices pointed to the spatial dependence of the surface temperature, independent of the variability of the climatic seasons. Observing the urban fabric, the trend towards higher surface temperature values is associated with morphological characteristics such as soil occupation rate, absence of vegetation and shade and predominantly waterproofed surfaces.

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“…Ren calculated the thermal comfort of 183 cities in China from 1990 to 2016 using daily meteorological station data [57]. Gobo also predicted future changes in climate comfort by kriging interpolation based on daily meteorological station data [58]. However, the spatial resolution of their results was relatively low.…”

Section: Comparison With Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Daily Spatial Distribution of Apparent Temperature Comfort Zone in China Based on Heat Index

2022

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Apparent temperature (AT) is used to evaluate human comfort and is of great importance for studies on the effects of environmental factors on human health. This study used the daytime heat index (HI) calculated by national surface meteorological stations in China as the AT dependent variable, with August 2020 employed as an example. The daytime fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate (ERA5) data and multi-source data extracted from the stations were used as the independent variables. Due to the presence of multicollinearity among the independent variables, we implemented a multiple stepwise regression model and developed a daily near-surface 1 km HI estimation model. The correlation analysis using the model showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.89; the mean absolute error (MAE) was 1.49 °C, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.08 °C. We also used 10-fold cross-validation to calculate the error between the parameter and predicted values. The R2 of the model was 0.96; the MAE was 1.80 °C, and the RMSE was 2.40 °C. In this month, the mean daily daytime HI ranged from −7.32 °C to 34.12 °C. According to the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), the areas with more than 20 days of heat stress for one month were largely distributed in the desert areas of northwest China and the coastal areas in southeast China, accounting for 29.98% of the total land area of China. This study improves the spatial resolution and accuracy of HI prediction, thus providing a scientific reference for studying urban residential environments and the urban heat island effect.

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The Bioclimate Present and Future in the State of São Paulo/Brazil: Space-Time Analysis of Human Thermal Comfort

Cited by 14 publications

References 94 publications

Comparison between Air Temperature and Land Surface Temperature for the City of São Paulo, Brazil

Comparison between Air Temperature and Land Surface Temperature for the City of São Paulo, Brazil

Urban expansion and climate change in the Federal District of Brazil

Daily Spatial Distribution of Apparent Temperature Comfort Zone in China Based on Heat Index

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