The Brain Network of Expectancy and Uncertainty Processing

Abstract

BackgroundThe Stimulus Preceding Negativity (SPN) is a non-motor slow cortical potential elicited by temporally predictable stimuli, customarily interpreted as a physiological index of expectancy. Its origin would be the brain activity responsible for generating the anticipatory mental representation of an expected upcoming event. The SPN manifests itself as a slow cortical potential with negative slope, growing in amplitude as the stimulus approximates. The uncertainty hypothesis we present here postulates that the SPN is linked to control-related areas in the prefrontal cortex that become more active before the occurrence of an upcoming outcome perceived as uncertain.Methods/FindingsWe tested the uncertainty hypothesis by using a repeated measures design in a Human Contingency Learning task with two levels of uncertainty. In the high uncertainty condition, the outcome is unpredictable. In the mid uncertainty condition, the outcome can be learnt to be predicted in 75% of the trials. Our experiment shows that the Stimulus Preceding Negativity is larger for probabilistically unpredictable (uncertain) outcomes than for probabilistically predictable ones. sLoreta estimations of the brain activity preceding the outcome suggest that prefrontal and parietal areas can be involved in its generation. Prefrontal sites activation (Anterior Cingulate and Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex) seems to be related to the degree of uncertainty. Activation in posterior parietal areas, however, does not correlates with uncertainty.Conclusions/SignificanceWe suggest that the Stimulus Preceding Negativity reflects the attempt to predict the outcome, when posterior brain areas fail to generate a stable expectancy. Uncertainty is thus conceptualized, not just as the absence of learned expectancy, but as a state with psychological and physiological entity.

“Contemplating the Next Maneuver”

“…37,42,43 Decisions requiring cross-reference to the decision maker's value system, incorporation of long-term or contextual information and decisions made under uncertainty are known to burden the DLPFC. 20,38,[45][46][47] Finally, goal-directed DM specifically involves the anterior cingulate cortex during highly ambiguous situations in which the decision maker perceives several conflicting options and a high likelihood of error, 37,38 which also may explain the relative PFC redundancy among novices during primed intraoperative DM.…”

Motivational engagement in Parkinson's disease: Preparation for motivated action

“…A cue showing a fistful of money indicated that a fast response would earn money (between $.05–$1.50); a fistful of burning money indicated that a fast response would avoid a loss; an empty palm indicated that no money could be gained or lost. Reward and loss amounts were varied on each trial in order to enhance participant engagement in the experimental task, as feedback uncertainty (lack of predictability) yields enhanced cortical correlates of engagement (Catena et al, 2012). A 1000 Hz auditory tone was presented concurrent with the preparatory cue to accentuate the announcement of the preparatory period (Wynn et al, 2010).…”

Comprensión y tratamiento del juego patológico: aportaciones desde la Neurociencia del Aprendizaje

“…Hasta donde sabemos, no se ha estudiado la actividad dopaminér-gica tónica asociada a la incertidumbre en humanos. Sin embargo, tres estudios recientes (Catena et al, 2012;Fuentemilla et al, 2013;Morís, Luque y Rodríguez-Fornells, 2013) han encontrado en el mismo intervalo una señal cortical que también está directamente vinculada a la incertidumbre del resultado. Por ejemplo, Catena et al (2012) midieron la actividad electroencefalográfica que se produce en este intervalo.…”

“…Sin embargo, tres estudios recientes (Catena et al, 2012;Fuentemilla et al, 2013;Morís, Luque y Rodríguez-Fornells, 2013) han encontrado en el mismo intervalo una señal cortical que también está directamente vinculada a la incertidumbre del resultado. Por ejemplo, Catena et al (2012) midieron la actividad electroencefalográfica que se produce en este intervalo. Para ello utilizaron una tarea de aprendizaje predictivo, en la que se manipulaba la contingencia con la que un estí-mulo era capaz de predecir un resultado en una serie ensayos.…”

“…Sobre esta base, Catena et al (2012) han argumentado que el SPN puede ser interpretado como la firma fisiológica del estado mental que se corresponde con el intento de predecir un resultado, intención que activa zonas de control y monitorización (regiones del sistema mesocortical dopaminérgico) y que sugieren además la captación de recursos atencionales. Su vinculación a la propensión al riesgo y su más que probable dependencia de las proyecciones dopaminérgicas mesocorticales sugieren que tal estado de incertidumbre podría tener valor reforzante.…”