The COVID-19 lockdowns: a window into the Earth System

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Field, Christopher B.; Appel, Eric A.; Azevedo, Inês L.; Baldocchi, Dennis; Burke, Marshall; Burney, Jennifer; Ciais, Philippe; Davis, Steven J.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Fletcher, Sarah; Hertel, Thomas W.; Horton, Daniel E.; Hsiang, Solomon; Jackson, Robert B.; Jin, Xiaomeng; Levi, Margaret; Lobell, David B.; McKinley, Galen A.; Moore, Frances C.; Montgomery, Anastasia; Nadeau, Kari; Pataki, Diane E.; Randerson, James T.; Reichstein, Markus; Schnell, Jordan L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Singh, Deepti; Steiner, Allison L.; Wong‐Parodi, Gabrielle

doi:10.1038/s43017-020-0079-1

Cited by 177 publications

(134 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…Responses to the coronavirus pandemic and corresponding global economic crisis will have long-lasting effects on energy and the environment. Some view the associated global lockdowns as a "socioeconomic disruption" with "a singular perturbation" on humanity's influence on components of the Earth System (Diffenbaugh et al, 2020). We emphasize that the human response to such disruptions warrants a wider lens that captures the dynamics caused by the social response.…”

Section: Resetting the Path Forwardmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Shutdowns in China caused an emissions drop of 25% from January through March (Carbon Brief, 2020a). Overall, GHG emission reductions could drop from 5% to 8% in 2020 (Diffenbaugh et al, 2020;IEA, 2020aIEA, , 2020b, with U.S. emissions falling by as much as 11% (Energy Innovation, 2020). Although these are the most severe disruptions in energy use and GHG emissions in more than 70 years, these modest declines also reveal how challenging it will be to decarbonize the economy by midcentury.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Pandemic disruptions in energy and the environment

Busby

Bazilian

2020

Elem Sci Anth

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Public health measures implemented during the coronavirus pandemic have had significant global impacts on energy systems. Some changes may be ephemeral: as industries go back to work and supply chains relink once production resumes, energy use and emissions have and will continue to rebound. Some may be more durable, such as reductions in commuter and business travel and increases in teleworking. The crisis has exposed the persistent vulnerability of communities of color and those living in poverty, as well as highlighting weaknesses in just-in-time production systems and inequities of supply chains. The social and policy response to the societal impacts of the coronavirus crisis will affect energy systems and the environment in complex and dynamic ways over the long run. Strategic policy responses by nations, communities, organizations, and individuals could go a long way toward reshaping energy systems and impacts on communities and the environment. Here, we highlight themes for continued investigation and research into socioecological interactions between the Great Lockdown and pathways for recovery with a focus on energy systems and the environment.

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Section: Resetting the Path Forwardmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pandemic disruptions in energy and the environment

Busby

Bazilian

2020

Elem Sci Anth

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“…where ∆POP is the population exposed to the incremental concentration ΔC in the 12 longwave radiation schemes, for which the two-way model has been developed to use. WRF is run with a 60 second time step and a 20 minute radiation time step.…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption to Mitigate Extreme Air Quality Events in China

et al. 2021

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Electric vehicle (EV) adoption promises potential air pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction co‐benefits. As such, China has aggressively incentivized EV adoption, however much remains unknown with regard to EVs’ mitigation potential, including optimal vehicle type prioritization, power generation contingencies, effects of Clean Air regulations, and the ability of EVs to reduce acute impacts of extreme air quality events. Here, we present a suite of scenarios with a chemistry transport model that assess the potential co‐benefits of EVs during an extreme winter air quality event. We find that regardless of power generation source, heavy‐duty vehicle (HDV) electrification consistently improves air quality in terms of NO2 and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), potentially avoiding 562 deaths due to acute pollutant exposure during the infamous January 2013 pollution episode (∼1% of total premature mortality). However, HDV electrification does not reduce GHG emissions without enhanced emission‐free electricity generation. In contrast, due to differing emission profiles, light‐duty vehicle (LDV) electrification in China consistently reduces GHG emissions (∼2 Mt CO2), but results in fewer air quality and human health improvements (145 avoided deaths). The calculated economic impacts for human health endpoints and CO2 reductions for LDV electrification are nearly double those of HDV electrification in present‐day (155M vs. 87M US$), but are within ∼25% when enhanced emission‐free generation is used to power them. Overall, we find only a modest benefit for EVs to ameliorate severe wintertime pollution events, and that continued emission reductions in the power generation sector will have the greatest human health and economic benefits.

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“…Furthermore, financial remittances by immigrants to their home countries have collapsed along with the global economy, by a projected 20% (World Bank, 2020). The net long‐term impacts of these changes are difficult to predict, but they are likely to be non‐linear and have cascading impacts on forests (Diffenbaugh et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%