The cross-scale correlations between individuals and nations in COVID-19 mortality

Abstract

It is challenging to quantitatively clarify the determining medical and social factors of COVID-19 mortality, which varied by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude across countries. Here, we present evidence that the temporal evolution of mortality follows a logistic law for 54 countries in four waves. A universal linear law is found between the early mortality growth time and the epidemic duration, one of the most important quantities, with a factor of 7.3 confirmed by data. Saturation mortality is found to have a power law relationship with median age and bed occupancy, which quantitatively explains the great variation in mortality based on the two key thresholds of median age (= 38) and bed occupancy (= 22%). We predict that deaths will be reduced by 38.5% when the number of beds is doubled for countries with older populations. Facing the next wave of the epidemic, this model can make early predictions on the epidemic duration and hospital bed demand.