The Demographic Ceiling of Changes Driven by the Umbrella Movement

Abstract

This article explains post-Umbrella Movement shifts in public opinion in Hong Kong by correlating demographic subgroups with changes in support for the status quo, utilizing Asian Barometer Survey data regarding support for the existing system of government and idealized models for the future. The aim is to determine whether public opinion shifts occurred evenly through population subgroups or were limited to participants and peers. The findings show that while Hong Kongers’ views underwent a seismic shift, the expansion of dissent was unevenly distributed across demographic cohorts, rather than representing demographically symmetric diffusion reflecting societal bridging and cross-demographic coalition building. This indicates that, while the social movement may have shifted aggregate public opinion away from the status quo, its precepts permeated differently across age, class, and especially gender lines, and that views on the status quo were also strongly linked to idealized models for their future, relative to China.