The Effect of Increasing CO2 on the Extreme September 2016 Rainfall Across Southeastern Australia

Hope, Pandora; Lim, Eun‐Pa; Hendon, Harry H.; Wang, Guomin

doi:10.1175/bams-d-17-0094.1

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…By definition, this approach constrains the methodology and conclusions to considering a single region (e.g., Hope et al. (2018) consider a single rainfall event in southeastern Australia, Zhou et al. (2018) consider an event in Wuhan, China; Tozer et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies of extreme rainfall events often focus on the analysis and attribution of a single event (e.g., Hope et al., 2018; Tozer et al., 2020; Zhou et al., 2018) or of the behavior of rainfall extremes in a specific region (e.g., Ralph et al., 2006; Rau et al., 2020). By definition, this approach constrains the methodology and conclusions to considering a single region (e.g., Hope et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fundamental Ingredients of Australian Rainfall Extremes

2022

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Satellite observations of Australian rainfall are used with reanalysis fields to identify the fundamental ingredients that distinguish extreme rain days from non‐extreme rain days. We analyze regions from the tropics to the mid‐latitudes, seeking to address whether regions with very different large‐scale circulations have common factors required for extreme rainfall, and if so, what synoptic conditions lead to the development of the extremes. In all regions, extreme rain days occur in locally strong ascent, high moisture, and an atmosphere closer to saturation throughout the depth of the free troposphere than on weaker intensity rain days, although the synoptic processes leading to the development of these local conditions vary regionally. The concentration of moisture over several days preceding an extreme is important to the development of the extreme. We show that the local values of precipitable water and mid‐level ascent can indicate whether a rain day will be extreme. The analysis uses 20 years of satellite‐derived rain estimates covering the period 1998–2017, averaged daily and over 100 × 100 km2 areas centered on the Australian cities of Darwin (tropical), Brisbane (subtropical), and Melbourne (mid‐latitude). The daily mean rainfalls are ranked by intensity, and the top 100 days in each region are selected as extremes. The large‐scale conditions of these extreme rain days are taken from reanalysis and compared against those of the median and low intensity rain days in each region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fundamental Ingredients of Australian Rainfall Extremes

2022

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“…Attribution studies encompass climate change attribution, impact attribution, and identification of weather sensitivity. Previous reports demonstrate that climate change has had a widespread and profound impact on global terrestrial and marine ecosystems (Ray et al, 2015;Hope et al, 2016;Huggel et al, 2016;Su et al, 2022a). In this study, we investigated the relationship between monthly glacier lake area and meteorological factors in Lake Mertzbakher from 2000 to 2021, aiming to determine the attribution of climate change to the lake's area.…”

Section: Meteorology For Lake Area Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the ice: decoding Lake Mertzbakher’s response to global climate shifts

Zhang,

Tang,

Zhou

et al. 2024

Front. Environ. Sci.

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This study addresses the critical problem of understanding the changing dynamics of glacier meltwater in Lake Mertzbakher, a challenge heightened by ongoing global climate change. Employing the innovative method of the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, this research meticulously extracted surface water data at 60 time points during the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2021. This approach represents a significant advancement over previous methods by offering more frequent and precise data analysis. We incorporated meteorological factors such as temperature and precipitation to assess their influence on the monthly changes in the glacier lake area. Our findings indicate a pronounced outburst in July, leading to a substantial decrease in the lake’s area, which reaches its lowest in September. Through detailed partial regression analysis, we established a hierarchy of meteorological influences on the lake’s area, identifying minimum temperature (r = 0.245), mean temperature (r = −0.239), precipitation (r = 0.228), radiation (r = 0.154), and maximum temperature (r = 0.128) as key factors. Additionally, our use of a structural equation model unveiled the most impactful elements, with mean temperature (r = −3.320), minimum temperature (r = 2.870), radiation (r = 0.480), and precipitation (r = 0.470) leading the effects. These insights mark a substantial contribution to our understanding of glacier lake dynamics, offering crucial data for predicting and managing glacier lake floods. This study’s novel methodology and comprehensive analysis underscore its significance in enhancing disaster prevention and preparedness strategies amidst the challenges of global climate change.

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“…However, the effect of human-induced climate change was occasionally not found in different areas in the world, e.g. heavy rainfall in December 2015 in Chennai, India (van Oldenborgh et al 2016), wet season 2015 in Nigeria (Lawal et al 2016), wet winter 2016 in Southeast Australia, extreme rainfall in winter 2015/2016 in California, USA (Quan et al 2018), or extreme rainfall in September 2016 in southeastern Australia (Hope et al 2018). Based on the experience gained in such studies, Philip et al (2020) presented a protocol to guide EEA studies in producing a robust statement on the anthropogenic climate change impact on specific weather events.…”

Section: Motivation For the Attribution Of The October 2020 Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of typhoon-induced torrential precipitation in Central Vietnam, October 2020

et al. 2021

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In October 2020, Central Vietnam was struck by heavy rain resulting from a sequence of 5 tropical depressions and typhoons. The immense amount of water led to extensive flooding and landslides that killed more than 200 people, injured more than 500 people, and caused direct damages valued at approximately 1.2 billion USD. Here, we quantify how the intensity of the precipitation leading to such exceptional impacts is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. First, we define the event as the regional maximum of annual maximum 15-day average rainfall (Rx15day). We then analyse the trend in Rx15day over Central Vietnam from the observations and simulations in the PRIMAVERA and CORDEX-CORE ensembles, which pass our evaluation tests, by applying the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution in which location and scale parameters exponentially covary with increasing global temperatures. Combining these observations and model results, we find that the 2020 event, occurring about once every 80 years (at least 17 years), has not changed in either probability of occurrence (a factor 1.0, ranging from 0.4 to 2.4) or intensity (0%, ranging from −8 to +8%) in the present climate in comparison with early-industrial climate. This implies that the effect of human-induced climate change contributing to this persistent extreme rainfall event is small compared to natural variability. However, given the scale of damage of this hazard, our results underline that more investment in disaster risk reduction for this type of rainfall-induced flood hazard is of importance, even independent of the effect of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, as both observations and model simulations will be extended with the passage of time, we encourage more climate change impact investigations on the extreme in the future that help adaptation and mitigation plans and raise awareness in the country.

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The Effect of Increasing CO2 on the Extreme September 2016 Rainfall Across Southeastern Australia

Cited by 10 publications

References 18 publications

Fundamental Ingredients of Australian Rainfall Extremes

Fundamental Ingredients of Australian Rainfall Extremes

Beyond the ice: decoding Lake Mertzbakher’s response to global climate shifts

Attribution of typhoon-induced torrential precipitation in Central Vietnam, October 2020

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