“…Urbanization increases peak flows across the AWW due to a reduction in infiltration capacity 30 , 70 . Deforestation reduces the storage capacity of the AWW resulting in intensified sediment yields and surface runoff in the watershed 2 , 14 . Figure 7 Box plot of the seasonal streamflow under multi-GCMs and land use land cover (LULC) changes for different scenarios to compare the variation among base period (1989–2020), near future (2021–2050), mid future (2051–2080), and far future (2081–2100) in ( a ) spring, ( b ) summer, ( c ) fall, and ( d ) winter.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As a result, the bare land and pasture areas tend to have slight differences from their condition in the base period. The LCM results for the future LULC maps revealed that the temporal changes in the LULC classes are significant and can dominantly influence the hydrology and water quality processes at the watershed scale 2,10,14 . The results show that previous studies that excluded the changes in LULC in the AWW cannot accurately project the watershed streamflow 59 .…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Changes in LULC can strongly influence both streamflow and sediment yield at watershed scale 10 , 14 . Given that no existing LULC map for the AWW was available, this study develops LULC maps for the case study region using satellite imagery data.…”
Understanding the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the hydrogeomorpholgical parameters in wetlands ecosystems is vital for designing effective environmental protection and control protocols for these natural capitals. This study develops methodological approach to model the streamflow and sediment inputs to wetlands under the combined effects of climate and land use / land cover (LULC) changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The precipitation and temperature data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) for different Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) are downscaled and bias-corrected with Euclidean distance method and quantile delta mapping (QDM) for the case of the Anzali wetland watershed (AWW) in Iran. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is adopted to project the future LULC at the AWW. The results indicate that the precipitation and air temperature across the AWW will decrease and increase, respectively, under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Streamflow and sediment loads will reduce under the sole influence of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. An increase in sediment load and inflow was observed under the combined effects of climate and LULC changes, this is mainly due to the projected increased deforestation and urbanization across the AWW. The findings suggest that the densely vegetated regions, mainly located in the zones with steep slope, significantly prevents large sediment load and high streamflow input to the AWW. Under the combined effects of the climate and LULC changes, by 2100, the projected total sediment input to the wetland will reach 22.66, 20.83, and 19.93 million tons under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results highlight that without any robust environmental interventions, the large sediment inputs will significantly degrade the Anzali wetland ecosystem and partly-fill the wetland basin, resulting in resigning the wetland from the Montreux record list and the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance.
“…Urbanization increases peak flows across the AWW due to a reduction in infiltration capacity 30 , 70 . Deforestation reduces the storage capacity of the AWW resulting in intensified sediment yields and surface runoff in the watershed 2 , 14 . Figure 7 Box plot of the seasonal streamflow under multi-GCMs and land use land cover (LULC) changes for different scenarios to compare the variation among base period (1989–2020), near future (2021–2050), mid future (2051–2080), and far future (2081–2100) in ( a ) spring, ( b ) summer, ( c ) fall, and ( d ) winter.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As a result, the bare land and pasture areas tend to have slight differences from their condition in the base period. The LCM results for the future LULC maps revealed that the temporal changes in the LULC classes are significant and can dominantly influence the hydrology and water quality processes at the watershed scale 2,10,14 . The results show that previous studies that excluded the changes in LULC in the AWW cannot accurately project the watershed streamflow 59 .…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Changes in LULC can strongly influence both streamflow and sediment yield at watershed scale 10 , 14 . Given that no existing LULC map for the AWW was available, this study develops LULC maps for the case study region using satellite imagery data.…”
Understanding the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the hydrogeomorpholgical parameters in wetlands ecosystems is vital for designing effective environmental protection and control protocols for these natural capitals. This study develops methodological approach to model the streamflow and sediment inputs to wetlands under the combined effects of climate and land use / land cover (LULC) changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The precipitation and temperature data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) for different Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) are downscaled and bias-corrected with Euclidean distance method and quantile delta mapping (QDM) for the case of the Anzali wetland watershed (AWW) in Iran. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is adopted to project the future LULC at the AWW. The results indicate that the precipitation and air temperature across the AWW will decrease and increase, respectively, under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Streamflow and sediment loads will reduce under the sole influence of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. An increase in sediment load and inflow was observed under the combined effects of climate and LULC changes, this is mainly due to the projected increased deforestation and urbanization across the AWW. The findings suggest that the densely vegetated regions, mainly located in the zones with steep slope, significantly prevents large sediment load and high streamflow input to the AWW. Under the combined effects of the climate and LULC changes, by 2100, the projected total sediment input to the wetland will reach 22.66, 20.83, and 19.93 million tons under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results highlight that without any robust environmental interventions, the large sediment inputs will significantly degrade the Anzali wetland ecosystem and partly-fill the wetland basin, resulting in resigning the wetland from the Montreux record list and the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance.
“…The Fragstats software is used to calculate the pattern index [45][46][47][48]. The software has three different research scales: the landscape scale, type scale, and patch scale.…”
Section: Time-scale Ecosystem Service Synergy/trade-off Analysis Methodsmentioning
“Two ecological barriers and three shelters” (TEBTS), which has the effect of relieving ecological pressure, is the national ecological security pattern in China. Calculating the value of TEBTS ecosystem services, clarifying the synergy/trade-off relationships between ecosystem services, and maximizing the value of regional ecosystem services are of great significance for maintaining the security of the ecological civilization. At present, the research on ecosystem service synergy/trade-off has become the frontier field of ecology and related disciplines at home and abroad, and many research results have been obtained. However, there is still room and significance for continuing research to think about the synergy/trade-off relationship of ecosystems from the perspective of temporal and spatial heterogeneity: clarifying the spatial scope and spatial transmission characteristics of ecosystem service synergy/trade-off; exploring the trend of ecosystem service synergy/trade-off, and simulating the dynamic characteristics of natural factors affecting ecosystem services; and analyzing the characteristics of different spatial attributes that lead to the synergy/trade-off of ecosystem services. In this study, the Songhua River Basin (SRB), where the NFB is located, is used as the research area, the ecosystem services are simulated through the ecosystem assessment model, ecological unit (EU) is constructed as a research carrier, which is used to define the spatial scope of ecosystem services, and the influence of spatial characteristics and attribute characteristics on the change trend of the ecosystem service synergy/trade-off relationship is analyzed. The research found that water retention, soil conservation, and biodiversity did not change much from 2000 to 2015, and these ecosystem services have a greater value in the NFZ. The amount of carbon sequestration increased rapidly from 2010 to 2015. Crop production showed an increasing trend year by year. As the main grain production area, the Songnen Plain provides the main crop production function, which is greatly affected by humans. In the spatial characteristic, water retention, soil sequestration, and biodiversity present a very significant synergistic relationship, which is manifested in the obvious high-value aggregation characteristics in the NFZ, and crop production and the other four types of ecosystem services are in a trade-off relationship. At the time scale, the four types of ecosystem services, including water retention, soil conservation, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration, are synergistic, and crop production and water retention are synergistic. The vegetation types exhibiting a synergy/trade-off relationship are mainly broad-leaved forests, and the soil types are mainly luvisols and phaeozems. These EUs are mainly distributed in the NFZ and have spatial topological characteristics: the area and circumference of these EUs are smaller, the radius of gyration is also significantly smaller than that of other EUs, and the shape is more regular. By focusing on the spatial aggregation characteristics and changing trends of the ecosystem service synergy/trade-off and clarifying the influencing factors of the ecosystem service synergy/trade-off, the ecosystem services can be integrated, and the ecosystem can be optimized. Thus, the value of regional ecosystem services can be maximized, and a certain data foundation and theoretical support can be provided for major projects, such as ecological restoration and ecological environment governance, which is of great significance for improving the pattern of ecological security.
“…al. 2003;Munoth and Goyal, 2020;Zhang et al, 2021). LULC changes are attributed to natural causes and most commonly to anthropogenic activities such as urbanization, deforestation and agricultural expansion, resulting in changes of canopy interception, surface roughness and infiltration rates (da Silva et al, 2018).…”
Changes in land use and land coverage strongly interrelated with changes in runoff. The effects of land use and land cover change on peak surface runoff and sediment loss, was investigated in a mountainous catchment, namely Lakka catchment located in Thessalia region in Greece.Most of the Lakka catchment is covered by pastures, agricultural, forest and seminatural areas. Land cover of the study area for the years 1945, 1960, 1996, 2007 and 2018 was captured by the method of the photointerpretation, using the appropriate pairs of the aerial photographs and the stereoscopic glasses (SA030-4X), and by the method resulting from the use of the datasets produced by the Copernicus land cover program. The aim of the study is to investigate the evolution of peak runoff discharge during the period 1945-2018, against a background of land use and land cover change. The Natural Resources Conservation Service – CNmethod was utilized in order to estimate peak runoff discharge while the sediment transfer was also estimated. Agricultural land area was found to be significantly increased, against forest and seminatural areas during the study period, resulting to an increase of peak surface runoff, which may cause flood problems in the downstream areas.
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