The evolution of European bailout arrangements and its impact on sovereign bond yields in the aftermath of the euro crisis

Abstract

The 2010–2012 euro crisis prompted a wave of institutional reforms in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), and one of the most remarkable changes was the creation of a permanent bailout facility for troubled sovereigns. The birth of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in 2012 was preceded by harsh debates, reflecting a conflict between a German view of country-level responsibility and French-Italian calls for more risk sharing. These tensions have remained ever since, which was also highlighted by conflicts regarding the ESMs overhaul at the end of 2019. Concerns of Italy then drew attention to the fact that a wide range of issues prevented the community from finalizing the post-crisis structure of the eurozone. This paper focuses on the evolution of the EMU financial assistance framework up until the latest efforts for its reform. We analyse the impact of related policy announcements on changes in sovereign bond yields of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland (i.e. the most vulnerable countries during the euro crisis). Our findings show that news on bailout arrangements significantly contributed to a contemporaneous moderation of periphery bond yields, especially in the case of shorter maturities. This result hints at the role of common facilities in supporting financial stability. To enhance this feature, a ‘package approach’ (i.e. multiple reforms together, as stressed by Italy) may well need to be considered. Such a broad perspective can help strengthen the euro area once the acute threat of the coronavirus pandemic is averted.

A critical analysis of the European Union’s structure and approach to economic recovery during times of crisis

“…Boros and Sztanó found that announcements of bailout framework by the EMU caused a further deterioration of bond yields in the troubled nations, leading to a spiralling of the negative effects of the crisis (2021). The announcements of the EMU's responses "significantly decreased government bond yields in the eurozone periphery" (Boros & Sztanó, 2021). In a self-fulfilling way, investors pushing up bond yields led to even weaker economic conditions; ultimately requiring stricter austerity and bailout measures and further worsening their returns.…”