The exponential smoothing model for squid production in Muara Angke Fishing Port, Jakarta

Abstract

Squid production in Muara Angke Fishing Port supported the needs of the processing industry, local market, and export demand through Tanjung Priok Port. However, it was often constrained because the results of fishing in the sea took a lot of work to predict. The study aimed to analyze the existing squid fishery and determine the appropriate exponential smoothing model for forecasting squid production in Muara Angke Fishing Port. The method used descriptive analysis and single exponential smoothing analysis. Model selection was based on the results of MAPE and RMSE tests. Production of squid in Muara Angke Fishing Port fluctuated yearly with an increasing trend. The highest production occurred in 2021 (28,572.52 tons). Bouke ami was the dominant fishing gear for catching squid, with a percentage of 61.46%. The appropriate model for forecasting squid production in Muara Angke Fishing Port was the exponential smoothing model α=0.8. This model had the lowest deviation rate compared to the exponential smoothing model α=0.2, α=0.4, and α=0.6, which were indicated by the value of MAPE = 18.92 and RMSE = 4432.34. Within ten years, there could be 3 times the ups and downs of squid production in Muara Angke Fishing Port.