The first 300‐year streamflow reconstruction of a high‐elevation river in Chile using tree rings

Barría, Pilar; Peel, Murray C.; Walsh, Kevin; Muñoz, Ariel A.

doi:10.1002/joc.5186

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…This reconstruction offers a new long-term perspective for the entire Mediterranean region in Chile. A relevant feature of our reconstruction is the retained variance, having the highest explained variance of any streamflow reconstruction in South America (56% of total variance), and contrasting previous river reconstructions carried out in several South American rivers by authors as: Mundo et al [45], Lara et al [46,47], Urrutia et al [48], Ferrero et al [49], Muñoz et al [37], Barria et al [13,50], and Fernandez et al [51]. In statistical terms, the RE of the reconstruction was 0.53 considered good and a little higher than the other streamflow reconstructions in South America.…”

Section: The 700 Years Of Petorca River Streamflow Reconstruction Andcontrasting

confidence: 51%

Water Crisis in Petorca Basin, Chile: The Combined Effects of a Mega-Drought and Water Management

Muñoz

Klock-Barría

Álvarez-Garretón

et al. 2020

Water

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Since 2010, Chile has experienced one of the most severe droughts over the last century, the so-called mega-drought (MD). The MD conditions, combined with intensive agricultural activities and the current water management system, have led to water scarcity problems in Mediterranean and Semi-arid regions of Chile. An emblematic case is the Petorca basin, where a water crisis is undergone. To characterize this crisis, we analyzed water provision by using tree-ring records, remote sensing, instrumental data, and allocated water rights within the basin. Results indicate that the MD is the most severe dry period over the last 700-years of streamflow reconstruction. During the MD, streamflow and water bodies of the upper parts of the basin have been less affected than mid and low areas of this valley, where consumptive withdrawals reach up to 18% of the mean annual precipitation. This extracted volume is similar to the MD mean annual precipitation deficits. The impacts of the current drought, along with the drier climate projections for Central Chile, emphasize the urgency for faster policy changes related to water provision. Climate change adaptation plans and policies should enhance the current monitoring network and the public control of water use to secure the water access for inhabitants and productive activities.

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Section: The 700 Years Of Petorca River Streamflow Reconstruction Andcontrasting

confidence: 51%

Water Crisis in Petorca Basin, Chile: The Combined Effects of a Mega-Drought and Water Management

Muñoz

Klock-Barría

Álvarez-Garretón

et al. 2020

Water

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“…In fact, Quintana and Aceituno (2011) in a study analyzing the changes in rainfall in central and south-central Chile found that ENSO and AAO are not independent modes of variability but rather they both affect precipitation regimes. It is also important to consider possible different seasonal effects of these modes of variability, for example those found by Barria et al (2017), who, utilizing a 11-year moving average of a 300-year tree-ring streamflow reconstruction for the upper Biobío river, determined a negative correlation between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and streamflow during the snowmelt season (October-March) while a positive correlation between the SAM and that seasonal streamflow. Thus, we believe that the SAM-streamflow statistical relationship we found should be tested further in order to develop more accurate predictive models of extreme interannual dynamics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Fernández¹,

Muñoz

González‐Reyes

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Streamflow in south-central Chile (SCC, ∼ 37-42 • S) is vital for agriculture, forestry production, hydroelectricity, and human consumption. Recent drought episodes have generated hydrological deficits with damaging effects on these activities. This region is projected to undergo major reductions in water availability, concomitant with projected increases in water demand. However, the lack of long-term records hampers the development of accurate estimations of natural variability and trends. In order to provide more information on long-term streamflow variability and trends in SCC, here we report findings of an analysis of instrumental records and a tree-ring reconstruction of the summer streamflow of the Río Imperial (∼ 37 • 40 S-38 • 50 S). This is the first reconstruction in Chile targeted at this season. Results from the instrumental streamflow record (∼ 1940 onwards) indicated that the hydrological regime is fundamentally pluvial with a small snowmelt contribution during spring, and evidenced a decreasing trend, both for the summer and the full annual record. The reconstruction showed that streamflow below the average characterized the post-1980 period, with more frequent, but not more intense, drought episodes.We additionally found that the recent positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode has significantly influenced streamflow. These findings agree with previous studies, suggesting a robust regional signal and a shift to a new hydrological scenario. In this paper, we also discuss implications of these results for water managers and stakeholders; we provide rationale and examples that support the need for the incorporation of tree-ring reconstructions into water resources management.

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“…Besides, the ENSO influence on drought events is also documented for much longer time scales (i.e. centuries) by analysing tree rings (Barria, Peel, Walsh, & Muñoz, ) or archaeological remains (Gayo, Latorre, Santoro, Maldonado, & de Pol‐Holz, ). Overall, the influence of ENSO on drought indices and their spatio‐temporal dynamics were assessed for several regions in Latin America.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides, the ENSO influence on drought events is also documented for much longer time scales (i.e. centuries) by analysing tree rings (Barria, Peel, Walsh, & Muñoz, 2018) or archaeological remains (Gayo, Latorre, Santoro, Maldonado, & de Pol-Holz, 2012 2 | DATA AND METHODS…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed trends and relationships between ENSO and standardized hydrometeorological drought indices in central Chile

Oertel

Meza

Gironás

2019

Hydrological Processes

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Droughts are natural phenomena that severely affect socio economic and ecological systems. In Chile, population and economic activities are highly concentrated in its central region (i.e. between latitudes 29 S and 40 S), which periodically suffers from severe droughts affecting agriculture, hydropower, and mining. Understanding the dynamics of droughts and large-scale atmospheric processes that influence the occurrence of dry spells is essential for forecasting and efficient early detection of drought events. Central Chile's climate is marked by a significant El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence that might help to better characterize droughts as well as to identify the effects of ENSO on the spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the region. We analysed the behaviour of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) time series for 6-month accumulation periods over the austral winter and summer seasons. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) showed a significant ENSO influence on dry events for SPEI-6 and SSI-6 during winter and summer. We found that the magnitude of correlation between ENSO and SPEI-6 has changed over the last decades becoming weaker in winter periods and increasing in spring summer periods. Increasing trends in meteorological and hydrological drought events were also identified, along all latitudes, with significant trends during winter in the southern latitudes, and during summer in the semi-arid and Mediterranean zones. These results indicate that drought mitigation actions and policies are necessary to overcome their adverse effects. Given the monthly persistence of ENSO and its relationship to drought indices, there are opportunities for drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting that could become part of national drought management systems.

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The first 300‐year streamflow reconstruction of a high‐elevation river in Chile using tree rings

Cited by 19 publications

References 39 publications

Water Crisis in Petorca Basin, Chile: The Combined Effects of a Mega-Drought and Water Management

Water Crisis in Petorca Basin, Chile: The Combined Effects of a Mega-Drought and Water Management

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Observed trends and relationships between ENSO and standardized hydrometeorological drought indices in central Chile

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